Turning Colder, Much Colder

Today has been one of the few days so far for the cool season in which temperatures were below normal.  The max/min for Tulsa has so far been 48/32 which compares to the normal values of 52/32.  However, big changes are coming as the first blast of really cold air will arrive during the day Wednesday followed by the coldest weather we have experienced since last January. 

For tonight, a light SE breeze could produce some patchy fog for the late night hours before our winds shift to the NW during the early morning hours. Those light SE winds and dew point temperatures currently in the low 40s will also combine to keep temperatures above the freezing mark so the freezing fog that was an issue this morning is not likely to repeat itself. 

The first of back to back cold fronts will then arrive during the late night and early morning hours as our winds shift back to the NW and become rather gusty.  Early morning low cloud cover should give way to some afternoon high level cloudiness and at least some sunshine.  That should allow temperatures to rebound to the mid 40s for daytime highs.  Fair skies and a light easterly breeze for Tuesday night should result in temperatures dropping back to the mid 30s to start the day on Wednesday.

Then, the second cold front with the really cold air will be moving in with gusty northerly winds returning that afternoon followed by falling temperatures as we should be at or below freezing by that evening.  There will also be a slim chance of a light wintry mix as the colder air arrives, but there is just not a lot of moisture available aloft and most of the forcing for precipitation will be further north.  Even so, would not be surprised if there were at least some brief snow showers or flurries, particularly for the more northern counties where a dusting to less than 1” may accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. Here is the anticipated location of any snowfall that may occur, and again, the amounts are expected to be very light. 

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In fact, as you can see on the 7 day QPF map, our prospects for any moisture of consequence are not very good throughout that period; frozen or liquid.

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The big story will be the cold as temperatures will likely be near 20 to start the day on Thursday, will struggle to get above freezing, and teens are likely then for Friday morning.  Wind chill values may well be in the teens or even single digits at times during this event.

But, as you can see on our forecast page, this will be a rather brief joust with old man winter as a return to southerly winds going into the weekend will quickly bring temperatures back to above the seasonal norms for this time of year.  Another weak system looks to arrive early next week followed by another stronger one by mid-week.  In fact, the 8-14 day outlooks continue to suggest we will be in a pattern supporting below normal temperatures. 

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Unfortunately, there is still not a lot of moisture expected to be coming our way anytime soon.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot