Another short thermometer day today as the cloudy skies and brisk N/NE winds have kept temperatures from moderating much as you can see on the hi/lo page from the OK Mesonet. So far today in Tulsa, the max/min has been 39/33 as compared to the normal values of 51/31, but temperatures will keep falling early tonight.
Despite the clouds, wintry weather has been minimal with a few flurries reported and some very light drizzle. The only snowfall of consequence as of this writing has been well into KS where up to ½’ was reported. There remains the potential for a few brief snow flurries early tonight before the skies start clearing later tonight. Again, no accumulation is anticipated.
However, the much colder air will certainly make its presence known by morning when temperatures will bottom out in the upper teens and low 20s. Not only that, but northerly winds of 10-12 mph or so will push the wind chill values into the lower teens or even single digits as you can see on the map for early Thursday.
Despite lots of sunshine Thursday, a brisk northerly wind will keep temperatures from moderating much and it will be a struggle to get much above the freezing mark for a daytime high. That will set the stage for an even colder start to the day on Friday as clear skies, cold & dry air in place, and light winds should allow temperatures to drop into the low-mid teens to start the day. At least the winds will be very light.
A return to a SE wind and lots of sunshine should at least bring afternoon temperatures into the upper 30s for Friday and gusty southerly winds will provide even milder conditions for Saturday. In fact, it currently looks like temperatures will quickly fall on Friday night, then level off around the midnight hour and may even rise somewhat toward morning as southerly winds will be increasing all night. Gusty southerly winds during the day Saturday will bring daytime highs back into the 40s, but clouds will also be returning which will limit the warm-up. No rain is expected though till later Saturday night or Sunday and mainly over the more eastern counties.
Another cold front will be pushing across the state on Sunday but the longer range guidance has large discrepancies regarding the timing and effect on our weather. As you can see on our forecast page, this does not look to be a particularly wet system with only a slight chance of a few rain showers as the guidance is at least consistent in that regard; but the impact on temperature is where the biggest question marks lie. One set of guidance would have us in the 40s that morning and near 60 that afternoon before the front arrives and another set of guidance has the front pushing through much earlier and holds temperatures pretty much in the lower 40s through the day. For now, have taken a bit of a compromise in that regard but have trended somewhat towards the cooler solution given the time of year.
After a cold start to Monday morning, lots of sunshine and a return to southerly winds should moderate temperatures well into the 40s that afternoon. Another boundary looks to arrive early Tuesday and does not have much moisture to work with either so will go with partly cloudy skies for now. In fact, as you can see on the 7 day QPF, our chances for any moisture of consequence remain meager at best.
Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will struggle to warm much with brisk northerly winds once again. Wednesday looks to be another chilly day, but again there are some inconsistencies regarding how much of a cool-down to expect.
But, as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook, temperatures are expected to average below normal through that period as well. It also keeps us on the dry side through with below normal precipitation anticipated.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.