Our big news today involves the shallow arctic air mass moving in our direction that will stick around for the rest of the week, possibly into the weekend.   The magnitude of this air mass is not as cold as the previous intrusion, but it will still qualify for a big shock to the system for a lot of folks. 

There may be some light snow showers or flurries Thursday as short wave energy drops across the state, but the accumulations would also remain light, mostly a dusting in spots, similar to the last snow event we experienced across northeastern OK a few weeks ago.   We do have some big differences in the model data for the end of the week that could bring additional snows into the area Friday along with more cold air.  But the odds will continue to remain very low for any significant winter storm at this point.

The temps will start in the mid or upper 40s this morning with north winds developing in the 15 to 25 mph range with falling temperatures into the lower 30s by the afternoon. Fog has formed overnight, and it’s dense across a large area of eastern OK. Some drizzle is also possible in a few spots.   As the winds pick up early this morning the visibility will improve. 

Temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the lower 20s with mostly to partly cloudy sky and north winds at 10 to 20 mph with daytime highs topping out in the lower 30s, near freezing.   A second surge of cold air is likely to slide southward into the state Wednesday night or Thursday morning with temperatures in the upper teens for lows and highs in the upper 20s. 

Short wave energy is likely to develop out of the Rockies into the southern plains and this should allow for some light snow showers across part of the state Thursday.   Any accumulation would be very light.   Friday morning the lows will start in the mid to upper teens with highs moving into the lower 30s.   At this point, the data diverges greatly.

The last few model runs have been split with some data reinforcing the surface ridge with more cold air arriving into the weekend, while some data has developed a new surface area of low pressure across southeastern Colorado and diving this low across the high plains of Texas and into the southern U.S.  This would effectively draw moisture northward Thursday night into Friday before more cold air would arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.   The impact would be significant with a major winter storm developing across northeastern OK and southern Kansas while diving into the deep south of the U.S. for the weekend.   

The GFS operational runs have been fairly consistent in this solution for the past two days, while the EURO has also been consistent in the dry and cold solution.  The GEFS ensemble suites have been split, at times, with models flipping from the wet to dry.   The Canadian model has also been flipping from day to day. This morning the operational GFS was not as bullish with the surface low but does develop a decent swath of snow Friday across the high plains of Texas moving into south-central and southern OK Friday night.  

 Our forecast will continue to remain cold for the weekend with only a low mention of snow Friday with cold air sticking around for Saturday. We’ll keep the snow mention around 20% for Friday at this point until we get another run of data that brings more confidence into the solution.   The surface ridge should move out of the state this weekend with a return of southerly winds by Saturday night or Sunday and this would bring the highs back into the upper 40s or even the lower 50s Sunday into Monday.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone