TULSA, Oklahoma - The main issue involves snow chances for tonight into Friday morning, mostly across the I-40 corridor region, including a swath of accumulating snow in the range to 1 to near 2 inches for our main area of concern.   While some light snow or flurries may be possible across northeastern OK, including the Tulsa metro, the main impact of this event will remain to the south of Tulsa.   A second surge of cold and shallow air will arrive this morning and keep highs in the mid to upper 20's both today and tomorrow with morning lows Friday and Saturday dropping into the mid-teens.   The air mass will modify and become displaced by Sunday with temperatures moving above the seasonal average into the 50's and lower 60's Monday and Tuesday.

The first of two distinct waves are moving across the central plains this morning and will brush far northeastern OK-southeastern Kansas-northwestern Arkansas-and southwestern Missouri with a low chance of some light snow showers.   A small area of dusting snows will be possible across the confluence of these state line intersects, but the chance will remain much higher slightly more north in latitude.   A few snow flurries may be squeezed from the cloud base across northeastern OK as the surge of colder air moves southward today. 

Our forecast remains unchanged for today with a chance of snow flurries in a few locations.   Highs will be in the mid to upper 20's across northern OK along with north winds at 10 to 22 mph.   Wind chills will drop into the single digits to lower teens this morning.

The second and stronger wave will drop out of the inter mountain region across the high plains of Texas this morning and into western OK tonight.   Most model data support accumulating snow along this path which will be across western- west central OK into possibly the I-40 corridor region near I-35 in south-central OK.   The eastern extent of the accumulating snow remains in question but may continue east of I-35 and south of I-40 for a period early Friday morning.   Very little moisture has been modeled in the snow growth zones north of the I-40 corridor.   This means we may see some light flurries in the Tulsa metro pre-dawn Friday morning but no accumulation would be likely.   The actual absence of significant moisture in the profile theoretically means no snow but we’ll keep a low mention just in case the system tracks more north than anticipated.   Buf profiles do indicate sufficient moisture in the snow growth zone across the south-central to southeastern areas, including McAlester, with hourly snow ratios changing to nearly 20 to 1 for pre-dawn Friday.   This would yield around 2 inches of snow in a narrow band across the southern areas of I-40 during this event.   But the forcing for this system should also be waning during this period and we have discounted the snow production slightly for this portion of the state.   Our forecast will support a 1 to near 2-inch snowfall south of I-40 and east of I-35 early Friday morning.   This would trigger winter weather advisories for part of south-central and southeastern OK.    Locations across west-central OK, along the OK-TX state line region eastward to line from Woodward to Clinton to   will support a 2 to 4-inch zone.   Unless something totally unexpected occurs, precipitation types Thursday night into Friday morning will be all snow.   Again, this main impact is to the west-south of the metro.

The possible snow cover for our southern sections may require lower morning lows than we’ll forecast for the metro for Friday and Saturday morning, but regardless, temps will be very cold with morning lows in the lower to mid-teens.   Daytime highs Friday will stay in the upper 20s or lower 30s.

The winds will change direction Saturday from the north to the west by midday as the cold air begins to lose its arctic identity.    Saturday afternoon highs will stay in the upper 30's for eastern OK (colder across the potential snow cover in southeastern OK) with Sunday morning lows near 20 and highs in the mid-40's.   South winds will increase speeds Sunday into early next week with temperatures moving above seasonal averages into the mid-50's Monday and near 60 Tuesday.   A few isolated storms may be possible Wednesday as the next front enters the state but the chances will remain confined to extreme eastern OK.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone