Rain and More Spring Warmth Ahead This Week

June came a bit early this year. As temperatures hit or even exceeded 86° Saturday afternoon around Tulsa, records shattered left and right. In western Oklahoma, the town of Mangum soared to 99.41°, the hottest temperature ever recorded this early in the state. It also was the hottest place in the U.S. that day. Clearly, this isn’t normal. Yet, as you see below, Tulsa has been hotter, earlier in the year. All said, it was the 3rd warmest February day on record for the city.

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                That rare kind of winter heat comes with a nearly perfect set-up that can only last so long around here. That set-up has been replaced by cooler, more February-like conditions for the next few days as you may have noticed. Gusty north winds have ushered in more seasonable air that will stick around as an upper-level storm system brings more clouds and rain to the area, just in time for Valentine’s Day. Here’s the breakdown:

                We’ll kick off the work week with continued dry conditions, but fortunately with far less wind, limiting any fire spread danger.  Clouds will increase Monday with showers spilling into the area after sunset. This is not a major system, but certainly a timely one as we are in desperate need of some moisture. The upper level low will pass to our south and so we’ll see the rain cut off just north of Tulsa Monday night and slowly shift southeastward during the day Tuesday. Tulsa may see lingering light rain into Tuesday, but it’s more likely to be a soggy day along and south of I-40. Below is a rainfall chance timeline showing that later in the day on Valentine’s Day will likely be drier for Tulsa.

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                The system is clear of the area Wednesday and the sun will be out in abundance for the rest of the week.  The progressive pattern in the jet stream will shift the warmer conditions back into our area in a hurry. From Thursday into Friday, temperatures will rapidly climb back into the 60s and 70s for highs. In case this weekend wasn’t a good enough spring preview for you, you’ll have another opportunity to come down with spring fever.

                That leads me to the big question I’ve received daily for the past few weeks: is winter ever going to return or are we sprinting full speed into spring?  While the weather pattern holds Arctic air well to our north for the foreseeable future, we have over a month left of the viable winter season. A powerful west-to-easterly jet stream will redevelop late this week and send several storm systems racing into our area. Without greater amplification of the jet stream, we won’t be able to let those systems draw the Arctic air at the high latitudes southward towards our area. Therefore, the next two weeks don’t look promising for a major cold outbreak. It does look increasingly promising, starting in about a week, for a wetter pattern to develop. This powerful jet stream will be able to draw up more Gulf moisture and keep us in the line of fire for at least rainfall and perhaps some storms. If any substantial cold air can migrate back southwards at this time, we would have a decent chance of wintry weather. Below are the outlooks into late February.

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                The one encouraging message for snow-lovers in Oklahoma is this. Every couple of weeks, we usually see a big shift in the jet stream. There is one showing up in about two weeks that sends some frigid air back into the state with the potential for some wintry weather. The day-to-day scenario will change lots between then and now, but it looks like we could jump back to some wintry weather by the end of the month, if not early March. Let’s just hope we don’t forget where we placed our heavy coats and that our plants don’t get too ahead of themselves!

                For the latest weather updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page!