Another Warm-Up Underway For Eastern Oklahoma

Things haven’t changed too much regarding the next few days and our weather across the southern and central plains.  We’re in great shape both today and tomorrow if you want some more spring like warmth.  Fog has developed across western Arkansas this morning, and we’re seeing signals for some developing across east-central OK for a few hours this morning.   If this occurs, the fog may become locally dense along the Illinois River region.  Otherwise we’ll see sunshine today with the temps nearing 80. 

Weather Alerts

A front will zip into the state Thursday night and will bring more seasonal air (cooler) into the area Friday and more so Saturday.   The data this morning has presented a signal for a few showers across southern Kansas early tomorrow morning but the odds are extremely low.   Even if this does occur, these pops would quickly move northeast.   Our bigger issue will be the gusty winds Thursday and the increasing fire danger by midday to afternoon across the state due to the combination of dry vegetation and low humidity during the afternoon.  Red Flag warnings may be required for some locations.   High temperatures today will be near 80 along with south winds at 10 to 20 mph sunshine and possibly between 80 and 83 Thursday with south to southwest winds at 20 to near 30 mph.  The southwest surface winds will have a tendency to shove any moisture to the east or northeast.  This means the chance for any showers or storms will more than likely remain to our northeast of east Thursday night.   But I’ll keep a low mention for our friends along the Ok-Kansas state line region. 

WARN Interactive Radar

The passage of the upper level system Friday will shove a surface front into the state early Friday morning with northwest winds and cooler air.   I have elected to remain slightly below the model output regarding the highs and may need to bring Friday up a few degrees.  But deeper and colder air should arrive Friday night with Saturday turning chilly. Saturday mornings lows will be near freezing with highs in the upper 40s near 50 for most of eastern OK.   But another very strong looking upper level trough will near the plains Sunday and this will bring south winds into the region Sunday into Monday along with an increasing chance of showers or storms.  The data has flipped a little regarding the exact parameters compared with yesterday’s runs, but enough consistency remains to include a slight chance of showers or storms early next week.  This morning’s last EURO run (from 00z) is suggesting the boundary will be retrograding Sunday afternoon and evening with higher dews located along the Red River Valley.  This would place a favorable area for a few Sunday Night-Monday morning storms along the I-40 corridor region.   The main upper level trough will be near the state early next week with another short wave influencing the area Monday night into Tuesday.   At this point, moisture will attempt to spread northward across the area with a better signal for some storms. We’ll need to watch this overlay of moisture, lift, and favorable dynamics early next week for the formation of strong to possibly severe storms.  

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Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone