System Nearing Midweek

Mid-level ridging will result in dry and warm conditions for the next few days before the pattern changes bringing storms back to the area by midweek.   A few of the storms will probably be severe, but the overall threat of flooding rainfall will remain low.   The system will exit the area sometime Friday morning bringing dry and pleasant weather for next weekend.   Highs this afternoon will move into the mid-80s along with sunshine and gusty south winds.

The weekend was right on track with dry and warm conditions and the pattern will continue to keep the same conditions across the state for at least the next two days.   A mid-level ridge of high pressure will be centered near the state before flattening as a strong upper level trough to our west moves eastward.   Most data support this system passing across the state Thursday and exiting the area early Friday morning.   A surface area of low pressure should develop across part of southeastern Colorado or northwestern OK Wednesday night and move eastward during the day Thursday.   South winds will keep pumping low level moisture into the region with storms developing basically Thursday afternoon and evening across central and eastern OK.   The synoptic pattern and local climatology would suggest the potential for severe storms and we’ll continue to keep this mention in the forecast.

Once the upper trough passes the area early Friday morning, a surface cold front will be sweeping southeastward across the state early Friday morning ( or late Thursday night) taking the storms east or southeast and bringing dry and pleasant conditions back to the state as another mid-level ridge temporally positions across the state.  The GFS is attempting to bring a weak vort around the northern edge of the high-pressure area both Sunday morning and Monday morning of next week.   We have discounted this solution for now. 

Lows this morning will be in the upper 60s with highs this afternoon in the lower to mid-80s along with sunshine and south winds around 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday morning the lows will be near 62-65.  The highs will be near 85 along with sunshine and south winds from 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday a few clouds will arrive with lows in the lower to mid-60s and highs in the lower to mid-80s.  

A few showers or storms may develop across the area Wednesday but the chance will remain low at this point.

Thursday storms are more likely.  Some may be strong to severe.  Lows will be in the lower 60s with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.   South winds will remain at 15 to 25mph shifting to the north late in the day or evening.

Friday the storms will end early.  Lows will be in the mid-50s with highs in the lower to mid-70s along with north winds and decreasing clouds by midday to afternoon.

Saturday morning the lows will be near 51 with highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s along with sunshine and southeast winds.

Sunday the lows will be near 60.  The highs will be near 83 along with sunshine and a return to south winds.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV