TULSA, Oklahoma - The mid-level ridge of high pressure is going to be the dominate weather feature of interest for the next week and possibly the following before some minor changes may occur.   Welcome to the Dog Days of Summer.  

The mid-level ridge centered over the southern and central plains is a common feature for July and part of August and brings sinking and compressing air across the region.   This typically brings the hottest temperatures of the year into eastern Oklahoma and this will be the case for the next few days with actual triple digits likely to be reached either Thursday or Friday across the region that may last into the weekend.   The only chance for any shower or thunderstorm activity in the short term (today) will be highly localized and very unlikely for the majority of the area.   A few isolated late afternoon pulse storms will be possible across extreme southeastern or east- central Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.  This chance is around 5%.   

Low level moisture has been slightly altered, but not by much, 70 to 73-degree dew points surviving across eastern Oklahoma for today and tomorrow.   A deeper fetch of moisture with 70 to 74 dews will be arriving Wednesday into Thursday.   This means the temperature heat index values will be nearing 105 to 110 by the middle to end of the week and additional heat advisories are likely to be issued for the area from the National Weather service.   But we’ll need to see exactly how the atmosphere responds to the role of evapo-transpiration and the actual temperatures. 

The mid-range data suggest the mid-level ridge may briefly flatten or even slide eastward across the southern U.S. Friday through the weekend.   This may allow a weak disturbance to arrive Monday or Tuesday of next week along with a summer front sagging into southern Kansas with a few storms during this period.   This remains just outside of the 7-day planner time domain.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone