TULSA, Oklahoma - The upper air pattern is getting ready to change across our area and this will help to bring the warmer weather back to the state soon.   As Irma continues to move away from our area this morning, the clouds we experienced yesterday will thin-out with mostly to partly sunny weather prevailing for most of the day.   Highs this afternoon are expected to move back into the mid and upper 80s with light winds for most of the day.   A rare September Ozone alert day will be underway this afternoon for the metro.

A mid-level ridge of high pressure currently centered across the southwestern U.S. will slowly expand eastward for the next few days acting to bring warmer air back to the region.   A surface trough is expected to develop across eastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas allowing south winds to return later tonight into Thursday and should be increasing speeds Friday through the weekend.   The return of the south wind will also slowly increase the low-level moisture with mid to upper 60-degree dew point temps returning Friday into the weekend.   The result will be more of a summer-like forecast for a few days with lows near 70 in the metro and highs in the lower 90s.   Gusty south winds will continue Friday into the weekend with wind speeds from 15 to 25 mph likely.

A weak front may sneak down into southern Kansas into far northwestern Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday and may spark-off a few scattered storms during this period across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas but the odds will remain very low.   We’ll only keep a 10% mention for Sunday at this point unless the data offers a little more confidence in the placement of any boundaries.

Next week a stronger looking system may be nearing the area as the upper air flow will transition to more of a southwest flow.   We’ll eventually see a better chance for storm activity next week, but at this point, only 20% chances will suffice for the latter half of the 7 day planner. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.