Oklahoma Showers To Give Way To Sunshine

A weak front is moving across the area this morning with an area of showers along and behind the front.   Enough instability will remain for a few rumbles of thunder, more so across the east-central or far southeastern sections for the next hour or so.   The main window for precip with this system for the metro is now (3 am) until 8 am.  Most activity will clear southeastern Oklahoma around 11 am or so.   Most data support the clouds clearing out behind the system for the 2nd half of the afternoon, more so across northern Oklahoma, with clouds remaining around the I-40 and southern Oklahoma region.   Temps later today will move into the mid-60s with north winds at 10 to 20 mph with pleasant late day conditions for the area.   This front will stall south of the Red River and gradually lift northward as a warm front Thursday night into Friday morning with increasing clouds by midday to Thursday afternoon.   As this process occurs, some spotty showers or pockets of drizzle may break-out in a few spots across the area, mainly late Thursday night into Friday morning.   Highs Thursday will also top out in the lower to mid-60s with south winds returning around 10 to 15 mph.

WARN Interactive Radar

A very strong upper level system will move across the central and southern Plains late Friday night into Saturday morning bringing very windy conditions back to the state Friday into the first half of Saturday.   All available guidance points toward southwest surface winds Friday from 20 to 35 mph by the afternoon with some higher gusts likely across far north central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas.  The impact of the southwest winds will have a tendency to shunt low level moisture eastward into western Arkansas before the actual cold front arrives late Friday evening.   A quasi dry line feature will move across the state during the day but may not enter the eastern Oklahoma until the front catches up into the area late Friday night or even Saturday morning.   Combined with the drying vegetation across the state and region, the fire danger may become elevated to near high levels for some locations due to the gusty winds.   The most critically high levels will remain well west of our area, but the fire spread conditions will be increasing quickly Friday midday to afternoon due to the wind.  

The data continue to offer some differences regarding the potential for a few storms Friday night across far NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas.   There will be an outside chance of a few storms rapidly developing around the extreme eastern OK around 9 pm to midnight Friday before the front sweeps across the area.  This chance remains very low and I will not include any pops on the big 7 day planner. 

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The pressure gradient will remain tight for the Saturday morning hours with northwest winds from 20 to 35 mph for the first half of the morning before a surface ridge begins moving closer to our area from western Oklahoma.  The result will be a much lower wind speed by late Saturday night along with clear sky and dry air.  This will allow temps to start in the lower to mid-30s Sunday morning with sunshine and highs in the lower 60s Sunday.  

Monday into Tuesday another system will drop across the central plains with a front clearing the area Wednesday.   At this point, no precip will be included.   Much cooler air will follow for the Thanksgiving period into the shopping Friday. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.