TULSA, Oklahoma - The overall pattern will remain unchanged for the next few days.  This will insure more cold air rolling into the U.S. with the southern edge making a run for the state of Oklahoma.   We’ll have several small precip chances in the forecast for the next few days but no major events are currently in the forecast for the next 7 days. There may be some light wintry precip in part of the eastern sections of the state but the odds of any impactful precip will remain very low.    Highs today will be reached around mid-morning with temps dropping from the lower to mid-30s into the upper 20s later this afternoon.   Northeast winds will pick up around the noon hour at 15 to 25 mph with chills in the lower to mid-20s.   Wind chill values may easily reach in the single digits to lower or mid-teens for the next few mornings.   Good thing the kids are not standing at the bus stop for the next few days. 

I continue to see part of the McFarland signature in the H5 charts for the next few days.   This signature is dealing with the position of the Polar Vortex across or near Hudson Bay and a relatively amplified flow moving from the Prairie Provinces into the northern U.S.   A small yet potent short wave will drop across the inter mountain region sometime Thursday or Friday and quickly move into the upper Midwest.   As this happens (the signature), the surface reflection will allow the surge of shallow and cold arctic air to plunge southward from the northern latitudes into the central plains. We’ll get a good taste Saturday into Sunday with daytime highs Sunday afternoon possibly staying in the mid to upper 20s with very strong northeast winds circulating around a developing 1060 MB surface ridge across the central plains.   This feature will remain in place for only a day or so before migrating eastward as the next wave develops to our west later next week.  The GFS operational is extremely cold, probably an outlier for Monday, while both the EURO and GFS ensembles offer some moderation.   I’ll make a last second call on just how cold we should go for Monday.  But at this point I’m not leaning toward the operational with 7 days to flip and flop. 

Our precip chances will remain low for the next few days but not zero.   For example, a few flurries may be possible this morning across far southeast Kansas with a departing mid to upper level wave.   As this wave quickly moves east, another surface front will move southward bringing gusty north winds and another chilly afternoon today with highs in the lower to mid-30s before temps drop into the 20s later this afternoon.   Some moisture may be drawn up and over the shallow dome resulting in some light drizzle but the better location for this should be position across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.   I have not included this mention because most of it should remain south of our immediate area.  

Thursday the tail end of the above mentioned short wave will drop down and brush far northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas and may produce some light wintry mix.   The signal for precip is very low today and I’ll more than likely keep this mention silent for this update.  

This weekend will continue to offer the surge of much colder air accompanied with some light snow or snow flurries on occasion.   The odds will remain low but if precip does develop it will be very light with no accumulation of travel impacts.  The chances will remain less than 20%.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.