TULSA, Oklahoma - Our main short-term issues will deal with increasing wind speeds and the impact on fire danger issues across the state today.  Our next system will arrive Friday into Saturday with a chance for some showers near and south of the metro into Saturday morning.  We may have some small showers or a few pockets of drizzle Friday morning to midday across southern Oklahoma but the odds will remain low.  After the system exits Saturday morning we’re in good shape for a few days before another pattern change occurs allowing a return of colder weather across the state late next week.

A fire weather watch is posted this morning for portions of the state and will more than likely be upgraded later today to Red Flag Warnings.  Regardless, today's weather conditions will support a very rapid-fire spread.  Exercise all caution to avoid anything that may ignite a fire. 

A fast-moving upper level disturbance will slide across the southwestern U.S. and over the Red River Valley later tonight into Friday but the main impact will be minimal. A slug of mid-level moisture will attempt to return about the same time and the small window for a shower or some drizzle will occur.  Low level moisture will be lacking. Gusty south winds are likely Friday even though cloud cover will limit the mixing. 

The main upper level energy with our Friday PM - Saturday AM system will remain north but a surface front will move across the region through Saturday morning.  Data from the various solutions continue to suggest a chance of showers for a few hours as the front nears the region.  The timing has flipped around some over the last few days and we’ve attempted to make minor adjustments when prudent.  I think I’ll not change anything from our current timeline.  This means our main window will be around midnight through 10am or so Saturday morning for our window of opportunity.  The front will progress out of southeastern OK by early afternoon and the clouds will clear from the west to east by the afternoon.  Temps will attempt to rebound into the upper 50s with northwest winds from 15 to 20 mph.

The following few days will be rather uneventful before the pattern changes again opening the door for more cold air later next week into the weekend.  Southwest winds will return Sunday with highs around 60 before another front slides across the state Monday morning with a minor, yet noticeable cool-down with highs dropping into the mid to upper 40s.  South winds crank up again Tuesday and Wednesday before the colder weather arrives late next week for a day or two.  

Another warming trend will commence later today with lows in the mid to upper 30s and highs in the lower to mid-60s with sunshine and strong south winds with high fire danger issues.  Friday will feature some clouds with lows in the mid-40s and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few small showers or some pockets of drizzle may occur early tomorrow morning in a few spots.  Showers are possible Friday night into the first half of Saturday.   Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs near the mid to upper 50s.  Sunday will be pleasant with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Monday features lows near 40 and highs in the mid-to upper 40s.  Windy and warmer weather returns Tuesday into most of Wednesday before colder weather will return about Wednesday night or Thursday of next week.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.