TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re tracking two fronts that will be influencing our weather for the next few days including one that passed across the area late yesterday afternoon and another that will arrive Saturday late into Sunday.   For the winter, snow lovers in the group, the second front continues to look much warmer in the last few models runs.  We’re continuing to trend those numbers up.  After hitting highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s yesterday, we’re back to cooler weather today, colder tomorrow, and then will move into the weekend.

Chilly north winds will be back across the area today with morning lows in the 30s and 40s.  A few clouds will linger across the northern sections, but we should have some sunshine in the mix later.  Partly cloudy will have to suffice with highs around the mid to upper 40s north and near the lower to mid-50s along and south of the I-40 region.  Despite the cooler weather, the fire danger will continue to remain elevated due to the dry conditions and gusty winds.  As stated here many times, the fire danger will remain a clear and present danger for the remainder of the winter season.   Our only hope would be for a wet pattern for the remainder of winter, and that just doesn’t seem likely. 

Later tonight we see the main impact of the colder air sliding southbound with temps dropping into the upper teens and lower 20s by Friday morning across northeast Oklahoma with daytime highs topping out in the mid 40s.  Southeast winds will return Friday afternoon and evening as the next storm system begins to influence the central plains with pressure falls to our west.  This will increase the wind speeds from the southeast Saturday across the southern plains and also have the potential of bringing some low level moisture into eastern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening.  It appears the deeper moisture will remain across far southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas and these areas will have the best chance of rainfall Saturday evening as the next system nears the plains.  The Tulsa metro and northeast Oklahoma will have a chance for a few showers Saturday afternoon and evening before the surface front clears the area early Sunday morning.  

Sunday midday to afternoon the majority of the cold air will remain slightly north of the area but we’ll see morning lows in the 30s with dry conditions.   Most data have now converged on a much warmer solution for Sunday compared to a few days back.   The ensembles have pretty much hinted at this for a while.  Consequently, our forecast has continued to trend higher with the temps and lower to near zero Sunday with the pop mention.  We’re still a few days away, and changes are still possible in the data, but it does appear things are trending upward.

Another system will be nearing the central plains by the middle of next week and we’ll do this forecast dance all over again.   At this point, we’re introducing a chance for some showers Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.