TULSA, Oklahoma - We’re back to a hot and muggy weather pattern today, but a front will move southward Tuesday bringing rain and thunderstorm chances back to eastern Oklahoma.  The upper air flow will remain from the north or northwest from Tuesday through the rest of the week.  This pattern could give us rain and storm chances daily, but the model output has suggested the higher chances will occur Tuesday through Thursday.

The first chance will arrive early Tuesday morning.  A small complex of storms will be likely across central and eastern Kansas early Tuesday morning and part of this system may clip extreme northern Oklahoma during the morning hours.  This chance will remain low.  Tuesday midday to afternoon the surface front will move southward, and other storm chances will follow by afternoon and evening.  This will represent a 40-percent chance including a few strong storm possibilities.   Precipitable water values will remain high.  This means the possibility of pockets of very heavy rainfall will also remain for some but not all locations.  Another complex may move from northwest Oklahoma into part of central to southern Oklahoma early Wednesday morning.  This system may take more of western or southwesterly route but still may have some influence on our sensible weather.  This will represent a 40-percent chance for Wednesday morning.  Thursday morning through midday a few showers or storms may persist across extreme southern or eastern Oklahoma.  This chance will remain relatively low.

The remainder of the week will offer slight chances for showers and storms based on the pattern, with higher chances along or south of the I-40 corridor region.  Our probabilities will remain near 10-percent for Friday through part of the weekend.  We’ll more than likely offer some adjustments to these periods later in the week but for now will keep these low mentions in the forecast.

Our weather today will be characterized with muggy conditions allowing heat index values to reach or briefly exceed 105 this afternoon while actual temps rise to just below 100.  Our friends at the National Weather Service may be issuing a heat advisory for a large part of eastern Oklahoma today and possible for southeastern Oklahoma tomorrow.

Temps will drop a few degrees Tuesday midday to afternoon but will be reaching the lower 90s north and upper 90s south.  Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the week with morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.