TULSA, Oklahoma - Welcome to winter, or at least an early taste of winter for the next 5 to 7 days. 

We’ll be dealing with light showers and cold temps today across northern Oklahoma with a snow flake or two on the state line later tonight.  Central Kansas will be dealing with some 1 to 4-inch snows around the I-70 region if you’re traveling north.  Colder weather will surge southward later tonight with temps near freezing Friday morning before an arctic surface ridge of high pressure settles near the state late Friday night with a widespread and killing freeze Saturday morning.  Temps in the lower 20s will be likely across the northern third of the state with some valley locations dropping into the upper teens pre-dawn Saturday.  A fast-moving upper trough will push across the area Sunday into Monday with a chance for some light showers and possibly some snow-mix before ending Monday morning to midday.  Additional cold air is likely Monday night into Tuesday with yet another round of freezing temps before the pattern changes later next week bringing slightly warmer weather back into the state.

The main upper level flow is currently west to east and will transport a fast-moving wave across central Kansas today.  The tail end of this system will brush our area today with spotty showers and cold weather.  Locations around Osage County to Washington County northward could see some light rain changing briefly to snow later tonight before quickly ending.  No significant impacts are anticipated in these areas. The clouds are expected to clear out rapidly tonight allowing some locations to reach freezing by Friday morning along the state line.  The metro will be near or slightly above freezing Friday morning, but the afternoon looks sunny and chilly with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday night football will be very cold with games starting in the upper 30s and ending around freezing with wind chills in the mid to upper 20s.  After the hard freeze Saturday morning, daytime highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s with south winds quickly returning across the region before the next wave drops across the plains Sunday into Monday.

The upper air pattern Sunday will also revert to the northwest as the next trough begins diving down the inter mountain region and will bring the chance for some showers or even some mix to the state.   This is the period that features low confidence due to the differences in the data, but this morning offers better agreement compared to yesterday at this hour. 

As a long wave trough develops across the northern U.S. and drops southward, strong winds at the base of the system will move across the state Sunday evening into Monday.  These jet streaks between 70 to 80 knots combined with colder air aloft will support some light rain Sunday evening that may transition to some snow or mix overnight into Monday morning.  As we’re still several days away from this system, I’ll skip the different scenarios for now and will keep our mentions rather broad at this point for any winter impacts.  It does appear, in the current data, that some accumulations would be possible across part of the state, mostly the northwestern third, but some minor impacts could be experienced across eastern OK.  Now this disclaimer: there is very little confidence in this latter half of the forecast, other than to keep the chilly temperatures into early next week.  Stay tuned for updates. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.