A Pleasant Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!  Our weather will be good today for travel across the state other than some south gusty winds across central and western OK later this afternoon.  Daytime highs will reach the lower 60s across eastern OK today with sunshine and a few clouds.  Later this evening a shortwave will approach the state and bring a chance for showers across central and eastern OK later tonight into predawn Friday.  The surface instability will be lacking.  Severe weather will not occur.  Only limited thunder will remain possible with this system that may produce some light amounts of precipitation, up to 0.20 to 0.40 in some locations.  This system should be clearing the region by Friday morning to noon with improving conditions by afternoon from the west to east.  Temps Friday will start in the 40s and end either in the upper 50s or lower 60s.  If you have shopping plans later tonight into pre-dawn Friday, grab the rain gear.

The scenario for the weekend hasn’t changed much compared to yesterday’s data.  This next system continues to trend northward with the Sunday precipitation chances while colder weather will eventually drop southward by Sunday midday to evening.  Before this occurs, Saturday may be the warmest day we’ve experienced in the past week or so with highs moving into the upper 60s and lower 70s across most of the state along with gusty south to southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph.  The lower layer of vegetation is now turning dry and brittle due to the recent hard freeze and could provide us with a fast fire consumption.  The fire danger will increase slightly Saturday. 

The trend for the Sunday system continues to be northward with any precip impacts.  The surface low will quickly eject out of northwestern OK into eastern Kansas by Sunday morning and bring strong to gusty northwest winds and colder weather into the state by midday to evening.    Temps may start in the upper 40s or lower 50s Sunday morning but may fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s by late afternoon along with northwest winds from 20 to 40 mph.  These wind speeds would quality for a wind advisory levels along the I-35 corridor into north central OK or southern Kansas and could also lower the wind chills by later in the day.  I’ve elected to keep the precip mentions now totally out of the forecast.  I suppose a few small showers may occur along the OK-Arkansas state line Sunday morning, but the potential for any snowfall will remain well north of our region into central or northeastern Kansas Sunday.  The winds and falling temps will be a bigger deal.

It does appear the colder or cooler air will stick around for a day or two early next week.   The data diverges for Wednesday into Thursday with the EURO bringing a fast system and the GFS remaining chilly and dry.  We’ll cross this bridge later this weekend.

Thanks for reading the Thanksgiving morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV