TULSA, Oklahoma - Our main weather concern will center upon a Friday storm system that may bring a few showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma by the evening hours.  A secondary issue will be a possible boundary that remains aligned across part of the state tomorrow leading to a wide range of temperatures from north to south.  Highs today should climb into the upper 50s north and some lower 60s south with the return of south winds by midday to afternoon.  Temps this morning have once again dropped into the 20s across most of northeastern Oklahoma. 

 

The 12k NAM, usually very good with shallow air masses, and some other models indicate we could see an intrusion of cooler air lingering across southern Kansas and possibly northern Oklahoma Thursday into early Friday which would require some punting on 3rd down to lower daytime highs considerably for Thursday.  At this point, we're planning on lower 60s for highs Thursday and at least mid-60s Friday before the stronger upper level system nears the state.  If this boundary does indeed remain across part of the state tomorrow morning, some overcast or thick stratus may be possible on the cool side of the boundary complicating matters even more.  If this unlikely scenario occurs, Thursday temps could stay in the mid-50s for highs. 

As we move into Friday, pressure falls will take place along the Rockies with a surface low developing across either southeastern Colorado or northwestern Oklahoma.  This low will eventually track eastward Friday night into Saturday before ejecting into the central plains to the mid Missouri Valley Saturday morning.  Strong winds aloft will be rolling across the southern plains at the base of the main upper level low and will support severe storms across the ArkLaTex into part of Arkansas and the southern U.S.  Unless the system slows down greatly, the severe weather threat will remain to the east of the Tulsa metro, but may influence southeastern Oklahoma or locations along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line region.

The question continues to be the placement of low level moisture and the timing of the system.  These systems can push the moisture eastward more than indicated by the data.  Our chances for shower or thunderstorm activity will remain only near 50% to 60% with a higher likelihood across far southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. 

A small disturbance in the zonal flow will brush the plains later tonight into Thursday and could trigger a few sprinkles across the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line yet the chances will remain very low.    

Saturday into Sunday appears to be a holding pattern before out next system nears the state Monday with a few showers followed by another cold air intrusion.  We did make another rather significant adjustment downward with the Sunday temps based on the current data.  This would keep our Sunday highs around 50 to 55.  Most data support another shallow air-mass (arctic) moving across the nation with the leading edge making a run at northeastern Oklahoma Monday through Wednesday before moderating.   This would bring the morning lows back into the 20s and the highs either in the upper 30s or lower 40s for the period.  The data will waffle around for another day or two with some low outputs, but a few showers or even snow flurries may be possible Monday.  This will also remain a very low pop on the 7-day planner.

The confidence regarding our temperature forecast for Thursday remains quite low.  Some additional changes, possibly significant can’t be ruled out.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.