TULSA, Oklahoma - Cold weather is underway across northern Oklahoma this morning with most locations dropping into the 20s under clear sky and light winds. Mostly sunny and pleasant weather is likely today with highs in the upper 40s north and lower 50s south along with very light wind. 

This should be a rather pleasant weather day despite the cold weather start this morning.  South winds will increase Tuesday along with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s near 60 before the first of a series of upper level troughs will move across the area.  Several of these upper level troughs and disturbances will quickly move across the nation this week including one disturbance moving across northeastern Oklahoma today with little impact.  A fast-moving shortwave will move across the plains Wednesday with a few showers across extreme eastern Oklahoma, but a stronger upper level wave will impact the state Thursday with rain and thunder chances.  Another system will quickly move over the state this weekend but currently appears to be lacking moisture for any precipitation other than a few sprinkles or showers Sunday. 

After mostly pleasant conditions today, increasing winds will be possible Tuesday with a slight increase in the fire spread conditions across the region.  Wednesday will feature mostly cloudy and breezy weather with a few showers developing across eastern Oklahoma as a medium length wave quickly moves across the state.  Just as quickly as this wave exits, another stronger wave will drop out of the intermountain region causing a surface low pressure center to develop across southeastern Colorado and move across Texas or the Red River Valley region by Thursday morning. 

Low level moisture will attempt to pool ahead of this feature across eastern Oklahoma with a few showers or storms possible Thursday morning to afternoon as the upper level feature drops across the state and a mid-level pressure area develops at the base of this trough.  If the moisture can recover sufficiently, a few thunderstorms may develop across eastern Oklahoma Thursday with gusty south winds.  This type of pattern can produce snow on the back-side or departing part of the storm system.  Currently, only a few of the ensemble members from the GFS hint at this possibility.  This is something we’ll need to watch in the data, but for now, will remain out of the forecast.  As we all know, things can and do change and additional changes will be possible for this part of the forecast.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.