TULSA, Oklahoma - South winds will increase today with daytime temps climbing into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  The dry and dormant vegetation combined with gusty winds and low afternoon humidity will promote a fast fire spread rate this afternoon with an elevated fire danger today across the state.  

 

The winds will drop some Wednesday but will once again crank-up Thursday with a strong storm system developing across the southern plains.  Rain with a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday as a powerful surface low tracks across the Red River.  Most of the thermal profiles with this system support rain but a small window will exist on the back side of the departing system for some rain changing to snow for a few spots to the west or south.  As this system exits the region Friday, relatively uneventful weather will remain Friday afternoon into the weekend before another weak system brushes the area Sunday with a few sprinkles or showers a very low possibility.

The upper air pattern is typically active in early December and usually very fast.  This is the case right now.  One system moved across the state yesterday.  Another short to medium length trough will move across the northern high plains tonight into Wednesday and may allow a few spotty sprinkles or showers to develop across eastern Oklahoma.  This chance will remain very low.  A much stronger wave, currently near and south of the Aleutian Island chains will rapidly drop across the Yukon into the Pacific northwest Wednesday and across the Rockies Thursday.  As this happens, a surface low will rapidly develop across Eastern Colorado and dive southeast into the high plains of Texas late Wednesday night.   Thursday morning this low will move across the Red River Valley with rain developing across most of the central to eastern portions of the state.  Enough surface instability will be present to support some thunder across the southeastern quadrant of Oklahoma and northeast Texas.  Temps will top out in the mid-50s Thursday morning and should fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s by late afternoon as the surface low moves east and a surface front crosses the state.  Strong south winds Thursday morning will change from the northwest by midday to afternoon in the range of 20 to 35 mph as the blustery conditions spread across the state.  Late Thursday night into Friday morning a window will be possible for rain changing to snow showers developing on the back side of the system.

 

The trend in the data continues to take the main upper level storm system south across Texas with most data centering this feature over north central Texas near Waco.  A few models runs suggest this feature would be slightly northward, closer to southern Oklahoma.  IF this is the case, the scenario for some rain changing to snow would be in the forecast for southern Oklahoma Friday morning.   As the forecast stands now, this is only a small chance.

As this system leaves Friday morning, improving conditions are expected with highs this weekend in the 50s along with mostly pleasant weather Saturday.  A few brief showers will remain possible Sunday as a new and weak upper level wave brushes the state, but this chance also appears to be very low.

Thank you for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.