Alan Crone: Thursday Winds Sweeping Down The Plains
TULSA, Oklahoma - The winds will crank up out of the northwest today behind a departing storm system bringing increasing fire danger threats across part of the state, and to some extent, across northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds from 20 to 35 mph will be possible. Low humidity this afternoon combined with dry vegetation and the strong winds will increase the fire spread potential, especially along and northwest of the I-44 region, yet the greatest fire danger threats today appear across northwestern Oklahoma. Highs this afternoon should range mostly in the lower 50s with mostly sunny conditions albeit a few clouds across extreme eastern OK. We’re tracking severe disturbances across the region for the next 10 days. The strongest system appears to impact the region around the day after Christmas with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. If this system continues to slow down, severe weather threats may be possible across eastern Oklahoma. As we post this morning, the deeper warm sector continues pooling along and south of the Red River in most model data.
The system that brought spotty showers across the area yesterday is deepening this morning to our east. The increasing pressure gradient will result in very strong north to northwest winds today with blustery conditions across eastern Oklahoma. Temps will remain above the seasonal average, but the wind will create wind chills in the 40s. The winds should subside later this evening.
Friday appears pleasant with lows in the lower 30s and highs in the mid 5os along with sunny conditions before the next upper wave rapidly moves across the central plains bringing some clouds and chilly weather across the area Sunday. Some snow showers will be possible to our north across central Kansas Sunday but only a few clouds and chilly weather with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be expected across northern Oklahoma.
Early next week a powerful upper level trough will develop across the southwestern U.S. and eject into the plains on or slightly after Christmas with 90 to 110 knot winds rounding the base of the trough Wednesday before the system exits the state Thursday morning.
Monday morning a few showers or sprinkles may be possible across northern Oklahoma with a fast-moving disturbance near the state. This chance will remain very low. Highs Monday, Christmas Eve, will be in the lower 50s with increasingly gusty south winds from 15 to 25 mph. Christmas Day will feature some clouds along with gusty south winds and above normal temperatures. Lows should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s along with strong south winds. As low-level moisture moves northward, a few spotty showers or pockets of drizzle will be possible. The day after Christmas currently offers the highest chance for shower and storms, including the possibility of some heavy rainfall and even a few strong to severe storms across southern Oklahoma. The current parameters would support a severe weather threat to our south across Texas, but this pattern bears watching.
As the system exits Thursday, the upper air flow will transition to a deep southwesterly upper flow with colder air at the surface moving across the plains. This is a typical late December and early January pattern for Oklahoma. It’s during these patterns that we typically experience wintry precipitation chances.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.