TULSA, Oklahoma - A fast-moving upper level wave will scoot across the plains this morning while shoving a weak surface boundary across the state with a few spotty showers.  The moisture content is limited with any precipitation expected to remain rather light and should quickly exit the area later this morning. 

After this system moves out of the area, the clouds will clear from the west to east this morning with afternoon highs once again well above the seasonal average. 

Subsidence on the departing side of the system combined with southwest to westerly surface flow will bring unseasonably warm weather into the region today.  It’s possible that highs may reach the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon before the cooler air arrives later tonight into Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s.  Colder air will filter across the northern and central plains Tuesday with the leading edge getting a little closer to northeastern Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday with lows near 30 and highs in the mid-40s as the next upper level system approaches in the southern stream bringing a few showers near the area Thursday night into Friday. 

The weekend should feature lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

The upper air flow will quickly push a disturbance out of the inter-mountain region and across the central plains this morning.  We’re experiencing a few showers this morning across northeastern and eastern Oklahoma but the lack of deep moisture in the atmosphere will support only light amounts for those areas that do receive the showers.  Instability is lacking, and thunder is not expected.

The next upper level system will arrive Thursday into early Saturday as a wave drops southward through the northern stream while phasing with a southern stream disturbance across the southern plains Friday.  The GFS and EURO differ regarding the strength and positioning of these features but remain consistent for at least the first part of the system.  This means our chances for precip will begin late Thursday and remain highest Friday near and south of the metro.  The GFS quickly pushes this system out of our area Friday afternoon and evening, but the EURO counterpart is slower and slightly stronger.  This model keeps the precip chances continuing into Saturday morning before exiting the area.  Our forecast will remain mostly centered upon the GFS solution with a slight compromise to the slower EURO.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.