TULSA, Oklahoma - Our next system arrives Thursday night late into Friday with rain chances across the state Friday. 

As this system exits the area Friday night into Saturday morning, colder air aloft may help to transition the exiting rain to snow across far northeastern Oklahoma, or better yet northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri. 

Until this system arrives, pleasant yet cooler weather arrives today with temperatures gradually getting colder through the end of the week.  After yesterday’s highs reached the upper 60s and lower 70s, temps today will top-out in the upper 50s near 60 along with north winds and mostly sunny conditions as a weak front moves across the area this morning.  A surface ridge of high pressure will settle into the region Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with increasing clouds by Wednesday afternoon before the end of week system nears the state.

The upper air flow will bring two disturbances across the region later this week that will combine to produce the Friday and Saturday system.  A trough dropping across the inter-mountain region in the northern stream will brush the central plains with a disturbance that will develop in the southern stream Thursday and influence our weather Friday into Saturday.  It still appears the southern disturbance will have the most influence on our weather.  Pressure falls will lead to evacuating mass and will cause a surface area of low pressure to develop across the highs plains of Texas into the Odessa-Midland basin Thursday and move eastward across central or north Texas Friday while exiting far east Texas Saturday morning. 

A few showers may arrive Thursday across southern sections of the area.  Moisture will be drawn around the system into Oklahoma Friday with rain likely, including the potential for some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across far southern Oklahoma Friday afternoon or evening.  Locations across northern Oklahoma will be in the rain, but the amounts will remain around 0.80 to 1 inch.  As the system exits, colder air aloft will be spreading across part of northern OK into the Missouri Valley with the weekend taking a turn back into winter with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the lower 40s. 

As the system begins ending Saturday, the temp profile may support snow by Saturday morning to midday, mostly across far northeastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and into southern Missouri.  The slower and slightly colder EURO has some higher snow potential while the GFS, still offering some wintry precip, would be confined to the far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas region.  Chilly and dry weather will remain Saturday after the exiting system with a warming trend early next week.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.