TULSA, Oklahoma - Cloudy and cold conditions are underway across eastern Oklahoma this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s along with light northerly winds.  Afternoon highs will attempt to move into the lower 40s but may fall a degree or two shy depending upon the exact outcome of the cloud cover. 

Most data suggest the cloud deck will begin to erode around the noon hour but many times the model data is too fast with this process.  We’ll expect the sunshine later this afternoon around the I-35 corridor with some partial clearing near the metro.  Far eastern sections may stay cloudy for most of the day. 

The middle part of the week will feature a fast-moving short wave in the northern stream that brings a slight chance of a few showers late Wednesday night into early Thursday across eastern Oklahoma.  The data continue to suggest most of the area remaining dry, but we’ll need to mention at least a low chance now for some sprinkles or showers.  Temps will continue to rise for the next few days with highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday along with morning lows in the 30s and 40s.  Friday will be another warm day with morning lows in the lower to mid-40s and afternoon highs nearing 60.  But a very strong cold front, possibly with the coldest air of the season, will arrive Friday night into Saturday plunging our temperatures below freezing, for both lows and highs for the weekend. 

Additionally, there will remain a chance for showers Friday afternoon and evening along the leading edge of the front. 

As the surface reflection moves away from the state sometime either late Friday night or Saturday morning, the upper level trough will be swinging across the plains with a chance for any remaining moisture to change to snow.  Of course, there remains some big differences this morning when comparing the GFs to the EURO with the positioning of the main upper level feature of interest and the impact on snow chances for the region.  The GFS is more northward, weaker and slightly faster compared to the stronger EURO which is also more southward.  And most of the models have been flipping with outputs for the past few runs.  At this point, our forecast will lean more toward the GFS for the precipitation potential for Saturday but also offer a compromise of temperature between the two. 

Basically, winter returns this weekend with very cold weather that should keep temps below freezing for the entire weekend.