Storms Moving Into Green Country Tonight
A powerful upper level system will approach the southern plains this afternoon and tonight bringing thunderstorms back across part of the state. Storms this evening could be severe within a few different locations with hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
The line of storms is moving a little faster than expected. We're now looking at storms to move into the metro Tulsa area between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m., Craig and Rogers counties around midnight and Mayes and Delaware by 1 a.m.
Southeastern Oklahoma will also have a chance for isolated storms to develop with hail and damaging winds.
A tornado warning or two will be possible.
The main storm system will exit the area pre-dawn Thursday with some post frontal showers remaining possible for the early morning hours and possibly a small wave of energy with the main upper level trough clearing the area Thursday early evening.
Pleasant yet windy weather will remain Thursday and Friday before our next system arrives by late Sunday night into Monday morning with additional shower and storm chances.
Gusty south winds will remain today with morning lows in the mid-60s and afternoon highs anywhere from the mid-70s to near the lower 80s depending upon exact cloud cover in your local area. A layer of warm air aloft (the cap) will more than likely suppress any surface-based convection through the midday hours but a few storms will still attempt to develop later this afternoon as the main forcing from the upper level system approaches the state.
Any storms that do form in the warm sector this afternoon or early evening will have a chance to become discrete supercells capable of all modes of severe weather. Later in the evening, storms are expected to develop along a southeastward moving cold front across northwestern OK and the eastward moving dry line surging into central OK. Two distinct areas of thunderstorms will be possible. Both areas will be capable of damaging winds and hail.
The first area will be across the Arbuckle’s into north central Texas by 7 p.m. into the late evening as the dry line begins moving eastward. The 2nd area will be along the cold front moving across northwestern OK into central OK by the 9 p.m. to midnight hour. Two separate mesoscale storm complexes will be possible with upscale growth into a segment of damaging thunderstorms as it moves eastward. The southern sections could start as supercell storms along the I-35 corridor region from north central Texas into the Arbuckles moving ENE by early evening. This chance is highly conditional, and the CAP could suppress storms from developing. But the latest hi-res data is suggesting storms forming in this area later this evening.
These storms, if they do form, would be supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Any discrete supercells in this area tonight could produce a tornado even though the chances are still low. The exact timing may still change, but the overall trend has the highest probability for southeastern OK tonight between 7 p.m. to 2 a.m.
The line of thunderstorm activity along the boundary will be up and running by 9 p.m. tonight to the northwest of the metro. Most data support this line moving east to southeast and entering the metro between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m. The main threats would be damaging winds and some hail.
The very latest hi-res data is suggesting that storms along the boundary may become more post-frontal with time later this evening. This is a change from yesterday's data. If this is the case, the severe levels would lessen with time as the front moves southeast with outflow undercutting updrafts. Some hail would still be possible in this scenario. Again, at this point, we are keeping the severe mentions intact with damaging winds, large hail the main threats.
Once the cold front catches the dry line storms may already be exiting far eastern OK into western Arkansas, but a few additional showers or storms may quickly develop on the front around 4 a.m. across far southeastern OK into West Ark. Some post frontal showers (not severe) will remain likely across northern OK for a few hours tomorrow morning for the early commute as strong upper level winds from 90 to 120 knots streak across the plains. Gusty northwest winds will remain likely Thursday and may reach wind advisory criteria for most of the day.
The back side of the upper level trough will swing out of the area Thursday afternoon but could still produce a few spotty showers or small t-storms around 5pm to 8pm Thursday evening.
Friday through Saturday will remain pleasant with sunshine and rebounding temps.
The next system currently shows up Sunday night into Monday with a few storms across northern OK as another surface front surges into the state. The data is highly inconsistent regarding model to model comparison and some additional changes will still be possible for early next week. At this point, Easter Sunday appears breezy and warm with highs in the lower 80s.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.