Low Chance Of Severe Storms In Forecast Wednesday
TULSA, Oklahoma - The potential for a few additional strong to near severe storms will remain in the forecast this afternoon and evening as additional upper level support moves closer to the region. A boundary continues to remain draped across part of northeastern OK this morning and may be a focus for some additional storms this afternoon and early evening.
Our current storm system will be exiting the area overnight into Thursday morning with another fast moving system nearing Friday. Most of the weekend appears pleasant before another chance for a few storms will arrive Sunday night into early next week across extreme northern OK.
Most of the active weather this morning will remain focused across extreme southeastern OK with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall moving out of the area during the next few hours where numerous flash flood warnings will remain for a few additional hours.
The Tulsa metro could continue to see a few spotty showers this morning, but the odds remain very low. A better period will occur later this afternoon and evening when a few scattered storms may attempt to develop. The main threats would be large hail and damaging winds, but with the boundary nearby and a rather high moisture content, a tornado warning or two would remain possible, yet not as likely as yesterday.
Higher chances for severe weather will occur across the Red River Valley, more so into north Texas where thunderstorms may develop by midday and expand in coverage eastward along both sides of the Red River today. While the set-up today remains rather messy (high moisture-leftover meso-boundaries from yesterday) the higher severe weather potential should remain slightly south of the metro.
Regarding the north TX potential, a complex of severe storms should develop and expand eastward later this afternoon impacting the Texoma valley. A slight chance remains that the top part of this complex may brush far southeastern OK later this evening.
Further northwest, a few storms may develop off the front range of the Rockies and travel southeast into far northern OK and southern Kansas by pre-dawn Thursday. A small window will remain for this complex to produce some strong winds, but we have only limited support for this scenario. The main forcing will push the cold front finally southward Thursday morning and should clear the eastern OK area by late Thursday morning taking the moisture out of the area.
Thursday midday to afternoon should feature north winds from 10 to 20 mph along with mostly to partly cloudy conditions as highs move into the lower 70s north and mid-70s south. Thursday evening should remain dry. Another fast-moving short-wave will brush the state Friday with some additional shower and storm chances.
The Friday set up seems to keep the deeper low-level moisture across southern OK and north TX with northeastern OK under the influence of northeast winds and slightly drier air. Regardless, we do have additional chances for showers and storms Friday with highs in the lower 70s. The severe weather threats appear higher across far southern OK into north Texas.
This short wave should exit our area Friday night leaving most of the weekend in decent shape. The data do differ regarding a Sunday night and Monday system, but our forecast holds a chance anyway across far northern OK during this period. At this point, we think most of the weekend should be dry and mild with lows in the mid-50s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Breezy and warm weather returns next week with highs in the lower to mid-80s.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.