We’re in good shape this morning with pleasant and cool conditions across northeastern Oklahoma. Most locations will be in the 50s early this morning with one or two sheltered valley spots briefly touching the upper 40s. The Tulsa metro will drop into the mid to upper 50s along with some morning clouds before more sunshine appears later today with highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The south winds will return by midday to afternoon with a modest increase in low level moisture later this evening as a storm system quickly approaches the area tonight. Scattered storms are likely across south central Kansas later this evening and a few will migrate into northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas overnight as another cold front moves southeast.

The instability will support some severe weather threats, mostly across far northwestern Oklahoma into south central Kansas with severe parameters becoming lower across NE Oklahoma by overnight and pre-dawn Wednesday. We may have a few scattered storms nearby early Wednesday morning, but these should quickly exit the area with decreasing clouds and highs Wednesday back near 80.

A few scattered showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon across extreme NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas as the back side of the upper trough clears the area but most of the area will remain rain free Wednesday afternoon.

The main upper air pattern will transition from the northwest to a mostly westerly flow by Friday into the weekend. A cold front will slowly move southward along with several upper air disturbances nearing the region this weekend into early next week. The return of low-level moisture combined with these features will support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, including at least a limited mention of severe weather and the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall in some locations.

The model data continue to offer widely varied solutions on the placement of the front which in turn has a direct influence regarding the highest storm chances and the exact locations. We’ll be attempting to refine the forecast as we approach this time, but the overall pattern will also continue to support increasing chances into the weekend.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV