TULSA, Oklahoma - A surface cold front will move across the metro soon with northwest winds increasing from 15 to 25 mph through afternoon along with sunshine and a few clouds. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.

We tracked some overnight and early morning showers across eastern Oklahoma, but most of this activity is well east of the region now. The main upper level trough will swing across the Missouri Valley with cold air aloft acting to destabilize the atmosphere across the Ozarks where some additional afternoon storms are possible.

One or two isolated thunderstorms may develop east of the metro this afternoon as the trough brushes our area, but the odds will remain very low. If a small storm does develop, some dime to nickel hail would be possible. Again the odds will remain very low.

The dry air following the frontal boundary will settle into the area this evening allowing for Thursday morning lows into the lower to mid-50s across eastern OK along with a few upper 40s in the valleys. Light north winds early Thursday morning will return from the southeast by afternoon with mostly sunny conditions and highs in the upper 70s.

More active weather will be likely with some additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday evening into early Friday with a disturbance moving across the northern third of the state. Low level moisture will also return rapidly across eastern Oklahoma Friday into Saturday allowing heat index values to reach the lower 90s Friday and possibly the mid-90s Saturday afternoon.

 

The upper air pattern will continue to change from the northwest to a westerly flow this weekend while a surface front will be positioned across the central plains. Another mid-level disturbance is expected to move through the flow and trigger additional showers and storms this weekend into early next week.

Most data support Saturday morning storms confined to extreme northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas with a strengthening warm air layer capping most of the atmosphere across eastern OK during the day. Gusty south to southwest winds are likely Saturday with highs reaching the upper 80s or lower 90s.

By Saturday evening into Sunday morning the front should slowly sink southward with increasing rain and storm chances for at least the northern third of the state and southern Kansas. This pattern may remain through Monday before some improvement will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Unfortunately, pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall may remain possible Sunday into early next week along with some periodic strong to severe weather threats.

The model data has not been very consistent with the exact placement of certain features this weekend into early next week, but the pattern supports the potential for thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall threats.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV