Heat Advisory, Storm Chances For Northeastern Oklahoma

Heat advisories, flash flood watches and storm chances.  A heat advisory remains for the metro today.  A flash flood watch will be posted for far SE Kansas and we’ll track a few storms near the region over the next three days.  Highs this afternoon will reach 99 to 100 near the metro with heat index values 105 to 110.  Slightly lower temperatures will be likely to our northeast and even hotter values to our west.

We’re watching several items of interest for the next few days that could have impacts across northeastern OK.  This morning, storms continue moving southeast out of Nebraska that may eventually clip far SE Kansas and NE OK around 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.  The hi-res data suggest this activity will be east of the metro, but with the northwest flow underway, many times storms will defy the model projections. 

We’ll continue to keep a slight chance for the metro today with higher chances confined across far NE OK for this 1^st storm chance late morning to midday.  Any additional storms later this afternoon would be located across far southeastern OK due to the daytime heating process.

WARN Radar

Both southern Kansas and a larger portion of NE OK will remain under heat advisories today with heat index values nearing 105 to 110.  Actual surface temps will be near 100 from Tulsa west and into the mid to upper 90s east.  Clouds from the Kansas convection may roll across part of the area by midday to afternoon that may disrupt some temperatures from reaching their peak, but at this point I’ll keep almost all locations on the hot side.  Areas from Coffeyville to Baxter Springs to near Miami may see highs in the lower 90s today, closer to the storm chances and cloud cover likelihood.

Later tonight, additional storms are likely to develop again across Nebraska and NE Kansas and become severe with damaging winds and hail the main threats.  As these storms also move southeast with time, a small complex may remain intact and brush northern OK Thursday morning through midday.  This will have a big impact on our daytime highs for Thursday, and we have made some reductions in both temperature and heat index for Thursday.  Another chance for a few showers and storms will also remain for late Thursday night into Friday morning as the effective boundary will be pushed into far northern OK during this period.  This also would bring the highs down a notch for Friday. 

Friday night into Saturday the midlevel ridge is expected to expand again as the boundary is lifting northward as a quasi-warm front bringing the hot and humid weather quickly back across NE OK and southeastern Kansas.  We’ll anticipate additional heat advisories will be required this weekend into early next week before our next front arrives either Monday or Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV