The excessive heat warnings and heat advisories will remain today, but some relief is expected across most of the state tomorrow as a cold front nears the area later tonight and Tuesday, bringing a few storms nearby and some relief from heat and humidity tomorrow.  A few heat advisories may remain tomorrow for southeastern OK, but heat warnings will not be needed tomorrow for northeastern OK and the Tulsa metro. 

Highs this afternoon will reach 100 or slightly higher west of the metro and staying in the upper 90s elsewhere with heat index values reaching 110 to 115 in some locations.  Highs tomorrow will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values from 94 to 99 across NE OK along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.  A few storms will be possible beginning later this evening into Tuesday morning.

 The mid-level ridge will remain slightly southeast of the region today but still maintain control for the afternoon.  Later this afternoon, a strong shortwave will eject across the central plains with severe storms likely across part of Iowa, Illinois, northeastern Missouri and central Indiana. A trailing cold front from this system will enter northwestern OK later this afternoon and evening with a few storms developing in these areas.  Some of these will enter southern Kansas and northeastern OK tonight, including a slight chance for a few near the metro through Tuesday morning. 

After tomorrow morning, the boundary will slow-down as it enters southeastern OK and may produce a few additional spotty storms Tuesday afternoon and evening to our southeast.  The low-level moisture will pool on both sides of the boundary and additional heat advisories will be needed for southeastern OK Tuesday but should not be required for northeastern OK. 

The rest of the week should be characterized by not as hot and humid weather for most of the eastern third of the state.  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, some drier air will move across part of NE OK allowing overnight and morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with Wednesday afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s along with another day of northeast winds. 

By Thursday, south winds will arrive with a gradual increase in moisture and temperatures through the end of the week.  Daytime highs by the weekend should be at least in the mid-90s, if not higher to our west.  The extended data suggest we may have a system nearing the area this weekend, and I’ve introduced a slight chance for a few storms Saturday evening into Sunday morning. 

Yet, I have kept the temps with a steady climb, closer to the mid and upper 90s despite some data suggesting a few degrees lower.  We’ll cross this bridge later this week if we need to make any reductions from our current forecast.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great Monday!

Alan Crone