The cold front is progressing slowly across northern OK this morning along with some upper forcing moving eastward.  This will bring a few scattered showers and across the region and the metro will have chances this morning through midday.  This front will eventually bring some minor relief to the state, including northeastern OK today and southeastern OK tomorrow.  Heat warnings and advisories will not be required today across northeastern OK, but a few counties will remain in heat advisories across southeastern OK into the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon.  Surface temperatures will reach around 89 to 91 today across northeastern OK with heat index values nearing 97, while southeastern OK will top-out in the lower to mid-90s with heat index numbers near 105 to 110.  This pattern will bring some dry air into the region later tonight and provide some pleasant mornings for the middle of the week before the heat and humidity gradually return into the weekend. 

 Our system is near the area this morning and there should be some scattered showers for portions of the area this morning with some locations remaining dry. As the day progresses, showers and storms may develop or fester across the I-40 corridor into southeastern OK with a few stronger storms possible as they encounter some instability.  By this evening, drier air will be filtering through northeastern OK along with northerly breezes setting the stage for some pleasant conditions Tuesday through Wednesday.  This will bring upper 60s and lower 70s into the area for the morning lows for the next few days with highs in the lower 90s. 

 Later tonight, storms are likely to develop across the front range of the Rockies and drop southeast, congealing as a storm complex and entering northwestern OK late tonight or early Wednesday morning.  Most observational and model data support this activity remaining well west of our immediate areas.  A few of these may brush the I-35 corridor but should still be more west.

Data this morning also supports a small area of low pressure developing across northern OK or southern Kansas Thursday evening into Friday morning before lifting northeast.  This may also produce a spotty shower or storm, but the odds will remain around 10% or less at this point. 

By the end of the week, the mid-level ridge will expand again eastward bringing slightly higher temps and humidity back to the area for the weekend.  The pattern will support a few showers and storms nearing the region this weekend into early next week but still will remain a low chance for this forecast update.

 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

 Have a great day!

Alan Crone