Afternoon highs should reach seasonal or slightly above average highs with most locations reaching the lower 90s.  Slightly muggy weather is expected today with temperature heat index values reaching upper 90s to near 100 this afternoon along with a light south wind near 10 mph.  The data this morning suggest our main feature of interest for most of the 7-day period will focus on a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered across the southern plains acting to keep most of the impactful weather away from the state.  Data has continued to suggest a weak back-door front may enter northern OK Wednesday morning to midday before stalling and becoming diffuse.  At this point, the chances for any significant showers or storms seems to be rather low, and I’ll continue to keep this out of the forecast products.  Temps may drop slightly across northern OK Wednesday, but again, we’ll keep these numbers near 90.

 Next weekend a short-wave may drop across the top of the ridge bringing a few showers Sunday with morning lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower or mid-90s.

 Dorian continues to be a daunting hurricane with sustained winds near 165 mph gusting to near 200 mph.  This is surely creating devastating impacts on Grand Bahama Island this morning as the storm is nearly stationary as of this posting. The main forecast philosophy hasn’t changed overnight.  Dorian will be extremely close to the southeastern U.S. coastal regions for a few days.   As it moves northward and reaches the outer banks of the Carolinas, the system should be much weaker compared to its current status.  Additional changes in track and intensity will remain likely.  It should be noted that even a path deviation to the left of 50 to 100 miles could bring much higher impacts to not only Florida but many locations along the eastern coastal U.S.

 

Enjoy your Labor Day Holiday.

Thank you for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone