A few early morning showers will continue for the next hour or so, but the coverage is waning quickly as the main upper level support is now well removed from the boundary.  Later this afternoon, a few spotty showers or storms can’t be ruled out along the front to our south, but the chances will remain low.  The temperatures this afternoon will be tied to how long the morning clouds will stick around and when they begin to thin out across the north.  We’ve stuck with a middle ground compromise from the convective allowing models and the hi-res data.  This means we’re staying with highs in the lower 80s today with northeast winds near 10 mph with a few sunbreaks to the north.  No airmass change will occur today.  The good news for most of our Friday night football games will be the temperatures mostly in the 70s, dropping from the lower 80s after kickoff.   Much improved from last week’s football weather.

Overnight into Saturday morning, the front is expected to either become highly diffuse or it may slowly lift northeast.  If this is the case, a few pre-dawn to midday showers or storms will occur across extreme northeastern OK or northwestern Arkansas.  Again, this chance also remains very low and I’ll not include any real pops for the 7-day planner for this outlier.

The mid-levels will quickly see high pressure building back into the region bringing our thermal structure of the atmosphere right back into the lower 90s for highs and morning lows in the lower 70s.  This pattern will remain for most of next week with gradually increasing heat indices into the mid or upper 90s.

Data also continue suggesting a tropical upper tropospheric trough may be nearing the southern US early next week but differs on the exact location.  This is expected to have very little impact on our sensible weather based on the current pattern and trajectory of the upper flow. 

Late next week, another strong looking upper level trough will roll across the northern high plains Thursday into Friday and will send a surface boundary southward.  Data unfortunately is inconclusive on the arrival of some fall like conditions comparing some of the global models.  Our forecast continues to offer a compromise with the data and would support some not as hot weather arriving next weekend.   

Thanks again for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great weekend!

Alan Crone