TULSA, Oklahoma - More warm and muggy weather remains again today but some relief will arrive Friday into the weekend with rain and thunder chances along with a modest cooldown.   

 The tropical depression located across southeast Texas will slowly move northward and should become absorbed into the southwest flow aloft.  I don’t anticipate the actual circulation surviving, but a significant plume of gulf moisture is likely to move northeast into the ArkLatex and portions of southeastern OK either Thursday night or Friday morning.  This initial shove of deeper moisture seems likely to impact at least part of northeastern OK sometime Friday.  The current eyeball trajectory of this moisture would bring the highest chances across southeastern OK and east central parts of the state Friday morning.  Severe weather is not likely if the circulation indeed diminishes as expected.  This initial wave of moisture may exit the area late Friday midday, but additional scattered showers and storms will remain possible this weekend with the active southwest flow and a surface boundary nearing the state Sunday.  I continue to struggle with the possible evolution and landing spot of a surface front positioned across central Kansas by early this weekend.  Some data bring this front into northern OK before stalling and lifting northward Sunday evening into Monday.  Other data keep the front north of the state through the entire period.  The difference regarding storm chances for Sunday would be significant, with the presence of the front supporting higher rain chances with heavy rainfall potential versus a few showers and storms across eastern OK through the day.  Hopefully we can have more confidence regarding this Sunday period soon. At this point, I’m still inclined to keep the higher chances across far northern OK and southern Kansas Sunday evening into Monday morning.  In summary for the weekend, scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast with highs in the mid 80s.  Not a wash-out, but some activity would be possible.

 Temperatures will drop Friday into the weekend due to the cloud cover and some rain cooled air occasionally, yet no airmass change will occur.  Heat index values may remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday with actual highs Friday near 80 and in the mid-80s for the weekend.

Friday night football games may be impacted with a few areas of scattered showers in some locations, but this chance does not appear to be significant from 7pm to 10pm Friday evening.

The autumnal equinox (fall) begins Monday.  Unfortunately, no true fall like weather will be near the state for most of next week either, yet data support temps remaining in the mid to upper 80s.  A cold front is possible about the middle to end of next week, but we’ll remain pessimistic at this point for any major changes.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone