TULSA, Oklahoma - Another summerlike afternoon will remain but scattered showers and storms will arrive soon for part of the area.

 

We’re tracking two mechanisms for rain and thunder in our forecast for the next few days.  The first will be the weakening tropical system and associated surge of tropical moisture.  The 2nd will be a weak mid to upper level trough that will be influencing the central plains during the next few days and its associated surface front.  The first chance for a few showers and storms near the metro will be later this afternoon or evening with a small band of showers possibly reaching eastern OK.  But higher chances will occur Friday morning into the afternoon from highway 69 into the Arklatex as moisture from the tropical system enters the area.  Another quick eyeball observation places the main remnant slightly more eastward again this morning compared to some model data.  Regardless, The Tulsa metro will be on the far western side of the system but will have a decent chance for a few mornings to midday showers, while southeastern OK will remain in a likely category.  Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be likely across extreme southeastern OK but the recent dry spell should mitigate the flooding potential in that area.  As the Friday midday to late afternoon period progresses, the showers will begin exiting the area with a few spotty showers remaining Friday evening. 

 Later Friday night into Saturday, the above-mentioned trough will be nearing the state with a few additional showers and storms developing west and northwest.  The southwest flow aloft will also bring a small disturbance across central OK by midday and may kick off a few Saturday morning to midday showers or storms across eastern OK.  Not a washout, but at least a 40% chance of a few scattered showers and storms across northern OK Saturday morning to midday.  By afternoon to evening, most of eastern OK should be relatively dry with highs in the 80s.

 Saturday night into Sunday a surface front will arrive across southern Kansas before stalling near the state line region.  This boundary continues to be problematic in the data regarding its eventual positioning and influence Sunday. Showers and storms will develop and may sneak down into northeastern OK Sunday morning, and then again Sunday evening into Monday morning.  If this boundary indeed enters the state, the potential for heavy rainfall and training cells will remain Sunday night into Monday morning around the I-44 corridor.  Our chances will remain in the 40-60% range for this scenario.   Some additional showers and storms would be possible Monday, but would also depend upon the positioning of the boundary. 

Temperatures will remain near the seasonal average this weekend with highs in the lower to mid-80s.  The blanket of high moisture content will keep the heat index into the lower 90s. 

We continue to see no major cool air for the following week.

 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone