The cold front that moved across the area yesterday is positioned well south of the state this morning.  We’re benefiting from a surface ridge of high pressure building across the central plains and Missouri valley with chilly and dry air circulating across Northeastern OK early this morning.  We’re starting in the mid to upper 40s north and some lower 50s south along with clear sky.  Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 60s and lower 70s along with sunshine and northeast winds.  Very pleasant weather will remain today, and tomorrow before our next system drops across the plains bringing rain and thunder back to the state as a strong cold front arrives Thursday or Thursday evening.  A few spotty showers may develop as moisture returns Wednesday or during the day Thursday, but the higher chances for storms appears Thursday evening as the next strong cold front moves across the state.  This will bring chilly and dry conditions back into the NE OK region for the weekend.   

 A powerful upper air trough located across the far western provinces of Canada this morning will move across the Pacific northwest and into the central plains by Thursday.  Pressure falls across the Rockies will occur Tuesday with south winds returning across Oklahoma into Wednesday increasing speeds from 20 to 30 mph Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.  As this process occurs, low level moisture will arrive with daytime highs moving into the mid-70s both Wednesday and Thursday.   A few showers seem possible Wednesday, but the coverage will be low, very spotty and mostly along the I-35 corridor region.

 Thursday afternoon or evening, storms are likely to develop as the front begins moving into the state.  Enough shear will be present for a few strong to severe storms, even though higher dynamic energy profiles will remain across the central plains.  If the timing in this morning’s data holds, Friday morning showers will be exiting northeastern OK with temperatures in the lower 50s for the day.  We’re not totally solid on the timing of the system.  So, we will be keeping some rain and storm chances into the Friday morning and afternoon periods.    

Saturday morning will feature the coldest air of the fall season to date with lows in the metro in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Outlying areas will experience some mid to upper 30s with patchy frost in the valleys.  Highs Saturday afternoon will reach the lower 60s with sunshine and north winds.   Sunday morning temps will move up a few degrees, with many locations starting in the 50s.  Highs will also rebound slightly with afternoon readings into the upper 60s or lower 70s.

The flood warnings continue this morning for the Illinois river, including the locations near Tahlequah, Watts and Chewy.   Significant flooding is occurring and is expected to occur in several areas along this river basin in Adair, Delaware and Cherokee Counties. 

 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone