Water-Logged Days and Roller Coaster Readings Lie Ahead

Aside from our stormy Sunday night, we have enjoyed a string of beautiful fall days. If you ask me, this is our best time of year for weather in Oklahoma… not only because it can be so pleasant, but that it can also be so tumultuous. Big changes are usually imminent by mid-autumn and that will definitely be the case for the end of our October. Those changes begin with a nose-dive in temperatures and very soggy stretch ahead.

                A cold front has arrived in Green Country in association with a deep trough in the jet stream. After its passage, our 70s will give way to 40s by Thursday morning.  Instead of warming during the day, those readings will plateau or potentially drop further into the afternoon as widespread rain continues to overspread the area. By Friday morning, some of us may sit just 5° to 10° above the freezing mark with the rain still falling. YUCK.

                Speaking of the rain, it will be breaking out in a narrow corridor this evening with increasingly widespread and heavier bands into the morning and through the afternoon. The broad area of rain will be stubborn, creating a washout Thursday and at least at a damp Friday when the showers will very gradually taper off. However, there’s a chance a few showers could linger into the weekend.  In fact, I can’t rule out some rain falling during the Tulsa Run. If I’m a betting man, I’d wager that we have a little sunshine later in the day Saturday, making for great homecoming weather for TU. Below is our rain timeline for the end of the week.

                While the rain will not be terribly heavy, it could fall at a moderate rate for a long period of time. Between Wednesday night and Saturday, widespread 1” to 3” amounts are expected. Isolated totals of 4” are even possible. This will continue to secure our spot in one of the top wettest years for Tulsa. Below is a general estimation of rainfall over the next several days.

                Our temperatures will trend upward into the start of next week before yet another major cold front arrived. Starved of moisture, we don’t think it will be a prolific rain-maker. However, the depth of the trough in the jet stream might bring some SERIOUSLY cold air.  It may feel like winter by the end of the month.  Plan your Halloween costumes wisely (and warmly!)

                Our outlook into early November is quite cold as the map below shows. It’s even possible that western Oklahoma has some snowflakes flying at a point or two in the next two weeks. We began October with 90° readings. It may end with freezing temperatures. It’s as if we squeezed our entire fall into a single month!

                Stay warm and dry as we move through the raw, wet days ahead. We still have some nice fall days to come.  And in case you are wondering about our fall foliage this year- be sure to check out my recent Oklahoma Fall Foliage Story on when and how good our peak colors will be this season. For more weather updates, be sure to also follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page!