TULSA, Oklahoma - Deep moisture is moving back across the state this morning, including across portions of northeastern Oklahoma, where a solid stratus deck covers the region.  We’re nearly saturated, and spotty showers or pockets of drizzle will be possible for the next few hours before scattered showers and storms become more prominent by late afternoon.

Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 60s. 

I still think the absolute best time for heavy rain and thunder will occur this evening into early Thursday as the northern stream trough moves into the plains and the southern stream disturbance nears the state.  A surface cold front, currently across central Kansas will move southward later tonight and powerhouse across the region Thursday morning to midday effectively bringing drier and colder air by Thursday afternoon and evening. 

A quasi-stationary boundary positioned roughly along the I-40 to I-44 region today will be a focal point for heavy rainfall later this evening.  A flash flood watch is currently posted from Tulsa south where 1 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible. 

While some instability will be present, severe weather is not expected.

 Thursday morning a surface ridge of high pressure will build across central Kansas and into northern OK with strong northeasterly winds Thursday midday to afternoon and blustery weather becoming apparent.  Temps will stay in the lower 40s for highs in the north and upper 40s to lower 50s across far southern OK.  You’ll need the big coats Thursday into Friday. 

Clearing sky and dry air allows for 20s overnight into Friday morning along with wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s along with Friday afternoon sunshine and highs near 50. 

We’ll rebound nicely Saturday with sunshine, south winds and highs in the lower to mid-60s before another strong cold front arrives Sunday afternoon or evening with falling temps from the 60s into the 40s.  The timing of the Sunday front has waffled slightly in the data, and appears to be slowing down some.  This is a little unusual for a front of this magnitude, but I’ll make some minor adjustments by bringing the Sunday highs up a few degrees before the temps start dropping Sunday afternoon into the evening. 

Monday, Veterans Day, appears quite cold with highs possibly staying in the upper 30s for the afternoon.  A small window for precipitation is possible with the Sunday front, but currently remains a low chance.  A slight chance for a few showers will exist across far southern OK late Sunday night into Monday morning.  And a small window for some light snow showers will also exist for far northern OK into southern Kansas early Monday morning. 

Both probabilities remain just high enough to mention at this point.  By far and large the main impact will be the bitterly cold air that arrives Sunday night may remain across eastern OK through Wednesday morning.

Rain gear today with highs in the 60s.  Rain gear and big coats Thursday morning.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone