Another pleasant weather day is expected as afternoon highs reach the lower 60s with south to southwest winds nearing 10 to 15 mph.  Our weather will remain relatively uneventful for the next few days, even though we’ll have a chance for a few showers Thursday evening across part of the area.  After another chilly Friday, the weekend appears pleasant, but the pattern should change next week with several cold fronts nearing the state.  Temperatures this morning are currently in 30s across most of the region with mostly clear sky.  We’ll be quickly moving up today with lunch hour temps in the mid-50s and highs today in the lower 60s before clouds begin arriving from the southwest later this afternoon and evening in advance of our next weak system impacting part of the area Thursday.  Despite this system, Thursday afternoon highs are also expected to reach the lower or mid-60s.   

A decent looking mid-level trough located southwest of Los Angles will move eastward over the next 36 hours and approach Oklahoma Thursday into early Friday morning.  A surface low pressure area will develop in response to this upper feature and move across the Red River Valley Thursday.  The moisture content in the atmosphere will remain very low across our immediate area, but a few showers will be possible as these features draw closer.  Instability is very low, but a few isolated storms may develop across extreme southeastern OK or northeast Texas, yet no severe weather will occur. The Tulsa metro will have a chance for a few showers, but any amounts, if anything at all, will be very light.  As the system moves eastward, we’ll cool-down again Friday with highs in the upper 40s near 50, with most of our weekend in fine shape with Saturday highs in the upper 50s and Sunday into the lower 60s before the next system arrives Sunday into early next week with another chance for a few showers. 

A pattern change appears likely for next week as the main polar jet will become more amplified and progressive bringing a strong trough across the Midwest and upper Midwest early next week.  The northwest flow will drive several fronts southward, and most data support a chunk of arctic air moving across the northern third of the nation early next week that will stick around for most of the week across the Midwest and northern plains.  I do think we’ll occasionally get a taste of this colder air as the leading edge will enter our area sometime Tuesday.  We’ll need to watch this pattern next week as the southern stream could send a few disturbances across the plains with the colder air lurking nearby.  This is a pattern that can bring wintry weather events across the state, but at this point, no specific model output brings us those parameters. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone