TULSA, Oklahoma - A travel advisory will be in effect overnight across far northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and northwestern Arkansas.

Light rain is expected this evening, changing over to some snow mostly after 11 p.m. to midnight. The counties involved should see a dusting to a half inch through sunrise, with a few spots possibly up to an inch.

The system will quickly dive down the central plains Thursday afternoon and evening bringing widespread snow across Missouri later tonight and Friday morning, but part of this system may impact extreme northern and northeastern OK with some showers later this afternoon into tonight, changing to light snow overnight into Friday morning to our northeast.

We’re anticipating rain shower chances for the metro during the commute this evening. Any snow activity would occur pre-dawn Friday and mostly across extreme northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. The chance for a rain-mix overnight in Tulsa is not zero but currently remains very low with the current track of the main upper level system.

 

If this system tracks more south or west than currently forecast, these chances would increase near the metro for pre-dawn Friday. Friday morning starts with lows near freezing with highs in the mid-40s.

This weekend should feature temperatures climbing into the upper 40s or 50s Saturday and the upper 50s Sunday, but some data now suggests a chance of a few showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning associated with a Texas system well to our south. The last few runs of both the GFS and EURO bring some moisture and lift across the topside of the system with a few rain showers Saturday evening into Sunday morning with temps above freezing.

I’m including some low chances for the metro at this point with slightly higher pops for southern OK Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Early next week afternoon temps will approach the lower 60s Monday and Tuesday as another stronger looking upper level system nears the state. A surface low will develop to our northwest allowing stronger south winds and warmer air arriving. This will also bring much higher moisture content across eastern OK which could result in either rain showers or thunderstorms Tuesday as the system ejects across the plains. If this system slows another day or two, higher moisture content combined with the expected shear would produce some severe threats.

As of now, the severe thunder threats are very low. We’ll also be dealing with colder air aloft moving across northern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the main upper level system travels the state. Additional wrap-around moisture would have the chance in this pattern to produce some wintry impacts. We don’t have a lot of model support for any wintry impacts at this point in the forecast process, but this pattern would support this potential. We’ll be watching and making changes as this period draws near.

In summary, most of today will be fine after a few early hours of fog and drizzle. We’ll have a window this afternoon and tonight for some showers near the metro with a mix to our northeast.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV