A potent upper level system is exiting the Missouri Valley producing light to moderate snow across a large portion of Missouri this morning.  A small area of extreme northeastern OK, southeastern Kansas and northwestern Arkansas may briefly see some very light scattered snow flurries or spotty showers for the next hour or so.  As of this post, a winter weather (travel advisory) remains for this small area in Oklahoma until 9am but no significant travel impacts are likely to occur.  Amounts, if any at all, will be very light with little to no impact for most locations in the advisory area.   This activity will remain to the east of the metro even though Tulsa could get a flurry out of the cloud deck.  Blustery and chilly weather remains for most of the day across northeastern OK while locations along and west of I-35 will experience some sunshine.  Lows this morning will start in the lower 30s with afternoon highs reaching the mid-40s near the metro and lower 50s to our west.  The metro may see some sunshine in the clouds later this afternoon with clearing sky tonight. The upper air pattern remains active with at least two systems over the next 5 days that may have impacts across the state, including the first arriving Saturday evening into Sunday morning and the 2nd Tuesday into Wednesday.

The data continues to offer a fast-developing surface low Saturday across western or southern OK along the Red River with some chance for showers developing Saturday evening into Sunday morning across part of northern and southern OK.  The data has not been consistent with these solutions, but there remains enough consensus to keep some probabilities for our area during this period from very late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  Temperatures Saturday are expected to remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s along with some sunshine before clouds arrive through evening.  Temperatures will not support any wintry weather chances with this first system that should quickly exit Sunday morning.  If the timing remains, most of the weekend will be dry other than a small window from late Saturday into early Sunday morning.

A stronger upper level system will be nearing early next week bringing rain and possibly some thunder across the area Tuesday.   The data this morning has trended the main upper level system slightly more southward, which limits the potential for stronger storms to the Red River and north Texas.  The frontal passage associated with this system arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as colder air aloft filters across the state from the northwest to southeast.  This pattern can bring wintry impacts on the back-side of the system, yet model output offers very little evidence for this system as of today.  I have kept the Tuesday pops at 40% while removing the chances Wednesday for this update.

In summary, a few low-end snow chances across extreme northeastern OK early this morning before quickly exiting.  Our afternoon will remain dry with highs in the mid-40s.  A chance of shower activity arrives Saturday evening and exits early Sunday morning with weekend temperatures above normal.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great weekend!

 

Alan Crone