Sunshine Returns To Northeastern Oklahoma Before Sunday Storms

Northeastern OK is positioned between two upper level systems today and the result will be dry and mild weather.  Afternoon highs should reach the mid or even upper 60s along with mostly to partly cloudy conditions and north winds near 10 to 15 mph.  Improving weather arrives Thursday into Saturday with thunder chances returning Sunday. 

Our main forecasting issue in the short term involves how far northward showers could reach into southern or eastern OK later this afternoon and evening as the main upper level storm system ejects across the Red River.  The chances for the Tulsa metro remain very low, if not zero, with higher chances along and south of the I-40 region, including places like Pittsburg, Latimer, and LeFlore counties southward.  No severe weather will occur across far southeastern OK today as the severe threats will remain south across Texas.   Highs this afternoon are still expected to reach the mid-60s across northeastern OK, including the Tulsa metro, with upper 50s near 60 across southern OK, closer to the rain shield. 

One strong upper level system is located across the Mexican Plateau and will enter southwest Texas this morning.  Another is positioned along the northern stream and is located on the U.S. and Canadian border. 

As the upper level system to our southwest continues moving east away from the state by Thursday morning, we’ll experience improving weather Thursday as morning clouds quickly vacate the area with afternoon sunshine and highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70.  The northern stream shortwave in the central plains will drive a weak boundary across the area Thursday night with slightly cooler weather as a surface ridge quickly establishes nearby Friday.  Morning lows wills start in the lower to mid-30s with afternoon highs in the lower 60s along with mostly sunny and pleasant weather.  Both Thursday and Friday appear to be in the running for 5-star weather days, but the fire spread rate does increase slightly Thursday.

This weekend another upper level system will approach the area by Sunday bringing additional rain and thunder chances back into central and eastern OK by least Sunday night or early Monday.  Before this occurs, pressure falls in the southern plains will allow gusty south winds developing Saturday with 20 to 30 mph during the midday to afternoon.  Relatively humidity values will continue to remain low for most of Saturday with increasing fire spread rates near I-35 into central and western OK.  Regardless the fire danger will increase Saturday due to dry conditions.

Sunday the system will near with increasing rain and thunder chances.  If low level moisture can become more established than currently projected, a few strong to severe storms would be possible Sunday across extreme eastern OK or western Arkansas.  As of now, the higher chances for severe may reside slightly east of the area.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone