Active Weather Pattern For Green Country Before The Weekend

The main upper level trough located along the West Coast will slowly eject eastward over the next 3 days.  This system will bring more active weather, including threats of heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms across part of the state.  Once this system vacates the immediate area, sunshine will return along with chilly conditions Friday into Saturday, with some locations experiencing a light freeze early Saturday morning.  Highs today will reach the lower 60s with some morning showers or pockets of drizzle nearby as a cold front slowly moves southward before stalling across southeastern OK later this afternoon.  Most of the midday to afternoon will be dry before storms arrive from the west later tonight.  

As the main pacific trough begins moving eastward, pressure falls in the Lee of the Rockies will allow south winds returning across the region later tonight into Wednesday morning with elevated thunderstorms developing as warm and moist air returns.  A few of these storms late tonight into early Wednesday morning could produce some nickel hail along with heavy rainfall across part of eastern OK.  Our first shot of timing would bring these storms into our area beginning around 10pm tonight and exiting by dawn Wednesday morning.  A flood watch may eventually be required for some locations across the area due to increasing water values and deeper moisture in the atmosphere, but no watches are posted at this hour.  Wednesday morning activity would quickly lift northeast away from the region while surface temperatures climb into the mid to upper-70s by afternoon along with south winds near 10 to 25 mph.  Wednesday afternoon storms are likely to develop across southwestern or west central OK ahead of a developing dryline feature.  These storms will more than likely congeal into at least one, possibly two small storm segments as this move northeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning across central and northeastern OK.  Once again, the threat for some heavy rainfall along with a few strong to severe storms will be underway for early Thursday morning.

By midday Thursday additional forcing from the main upper trough will be nearing the state along with strong southwest winds from 20 to 35 mph.  It’s this period Thursday morning to midday that could support severe storms across eastern OK due to increasing wind shear from the main upper level system.  But the presence of early morning showers and storms may act to limit surface instability for the region.  The threat of heavy rainfall will remain moderate to high during this period but the threat of strong to severe storm activity will remain conditional for this forecast update.  Highs Thursday afternoon are expected to reach the mid-70s, possibly near 80 along with mostly to partly cloudy conditions before the cold front and dry line pass the area by evening ushering drier and cooler air into the state.  Friday sunshine returns, but so will chilly conditions with highs only in the upper 40s north and lower 50s south.  A surface ridge of high pressure will build across the central plains bringing clear and cold weather into northern OK Saturday morning with many locations in the upper 20s and lower 30s.  Since the growing season is underway, a freeze warning could be issued for part of our area. Highs this weekend will also remain below the seasonal average with highs staying in the lower 50s. Another system may near the state Sunday night into Monday, but we have some differences in the data.  We’ll have a slight chance for showers Sunday across southeastern OK and begin our Monday pops at 20%.  It does appear next week (and the next few weeks) will remain active. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone