Colder Air Arriving Soon To Northeast Oklahoma


Thursday, December 12th 2019, 10:35 am
By: Alan Crone


A mostly pleasant weather day is ahead with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s despite the presence of some morning clouds and breezy weather. We should see sunshine by midmorning into the afternoon before more clouds arrive this evening. A minor warming trend is underway through Friday before colder air arrives this weekend, along with a storm system that may bring some active weather, including wintry impacts, across part northern OK into Kansas.

A small disturbance will move across the region this morning and exit the area later today. The lower levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry and this system will pass through with no precipitation. We’ll experience slightly breezy conditions along with highs temperatures into the mid-50s this afternoon with a broken midlevel cloud deck this morning before becoming sunny by midday to early afternoon. Another system will dive down the front range and into the Missouri Valley Friday night or Saturday morning signally the return of colder air as a surface cold front moves into northern OK and stalls by the evening hours.

Gusty north winds will develop Saturday midday to evening along with increasing clouds across the northern third of the state. The next upper level wave should be stronger and will impact part of the plains Sunday into Monday bringing some chances for snow and wintry mixed precip, mostly across southern and central Kansas. The data this morning continues to offer some differences in the best locations for snowfall, but our forecast continues with a model blend until confidence increases on a specific model solution.

Our forecast will continue to mention shower chances Sunday evening into Monday, including the potential for some wintry mix and snow across far northern OK and southern Kansas. The forecast data is more than likely going to change some over the next few days and we anticipate some changes to our forecast. I’ll encourage you to check back daily until this system becomes more certain and the confidence for the forecast increases.

The EURO has continued to offer a more southern track of the system compared to the GFS. This would bring some snow or mix across the northern third of the state and into southern Kansas. But even the EURO last night has shifted slightly more north compared to previous runs. The GFS also remains consistent by keeping the main wintry impacts of the state well to our north, mostly in central and southern Kansas, with very little impact across northeastern OK other than some light showers Sunday night into Monday.

 

 

A few other global models we typically use for these situations are split but are mostly keeping the main wintry impacts across southern and central Kansas. We’re trying to remain consistent with our day to day forecasting to avoid wide flips in trends or numbers, despite the potential that we may eventually make such big changes.

Here’s our current forecast and trend for the weekend.

Our forecast continues to keep Saturday chilly with highs in the upper 40s north and lower 50s south. Sunday has a high near 40 and Monday into the upper 30s. Morning lows Sunday into Monday will be near freezing. A few snow showers may develop Sunday morning across southern Kansas, but with little impacts across northern OK. Sunday afternoon and evening, more snow is likely across central to southern Kansas while light showers will develop across eastern OK, including near the Tulsa metro.

Sunday night, some of this may flip to snow or mix from highway 412 north, with higher chances for some across far northern OK into southern Kansas. Monday morning the system will exit taking the precipitation chances out of the area. Any amounts, if any for the metro, should be light.
By Monday, almost all data support highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s as the system is quickly exiting our area, and our forecast has followed these solutions.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV