Slow Warm Up Continues Before Weekend System Arrives


Wednesday, December 11th 2019, 6:40 am
By: Alan Crone


Clear sky and dry air have allowed overnight lows to drop into the 20s across eastern OK along with a light south wind.  We should continue the trend of slowly improving weather for the next few days, with daytime highs climbing into the mid to upper 50s through the end of the week before a storm system arrives this weekend with a slight mention of some showers or wintry weather impacts across northeastern OK.  The data remains highly inconsistent regarding the weekend system and additional changes are likely to the forecast.

The upper air flow will remain rather progressive for the next ten days bringing several storm systems across the plains, including a fast-moving shortwave Thursday, another small wave Friday night, and another wave Sunday into Monday.  The Thursday system will encounter a relatively dry airmass and will only produce some clouds and gusty winds.  The Friday evening system begins the process of a surface cold front moving southward into Oklahoma for the weekend.  And the Sunday into Monday system will have the chance to produce some precipitation, including the potential for some wintry weather across northern OK and southern Kansas. 

WARN Radar

While several major inconsistencies exist with this Sunday night and Monday system in the model data, the overall signal remains reliable for the storm system to move across the central plains with some influence across northeastern OK.  This wave is currently over 4,000 miles from the state.  Model data will change several times between now and the weekend. 

Colder air will be surging southward Saturday evening into Sunday as this upper wave nears allowing for some light rain to snow showers across part of northern OK and southern Kansas.  At this hour, regarding our immediate area, most data suggest any wintry amounts would be light and mostly across extreme northern OK and points northward into Kansas with a mix or light showers southward into eastern OK.  The EURO model continues to be the model producing a significant swath of snow along the Stateline into Kansas but seems overdone.  This model is about 100 miles further south compared to the solutions offered by the GFS model suite for the Sunday evening period but has been the more consistent model for this system.  Both the Canadian and German models bring snow across mostly southern Kansas with some minor impacts across far northern OK.  Our forecast continues to favor a blend of data, with a slight mention for showers and light snow showers Sunday, and more so Sunday evening into Monday morning for the metro northward.  Colder air will surge southward during this process and become more noticeable Sunday into Monday with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s Sunday and into the upper 30s or lower 40s Monday.  Relatively warmer air will still be possible across southern OK during this period before cooling down Monday night into Tuesday.   As stated earlier, changes are likely to the forecast are more than likely going to occur, so please check back daily for updates.

The pattern may also produce additional storm systems for the plains states about every 3 to 7 days apart for the rest of the month.

 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone