At this point, we still think most of the weekend will be good for outdoor activities despite tracking two distinct upper level waves bringing rain and thunder into part of the state. The first wave nears later tonight and exits early Saturday morning. The 2nd and stronger system arrives late Sunday night and exits early Monday morning. Both are fast moving systems. The 2nd has more dynamic energy but the thoughts for any severe storms Sunday night will hinge on the amount of low-level moisture return across eastern OK. At this point, I must continue with mentions for severe storms Sunday evening, more so for southeastern and east-central OK. Our weather today appears very nice with sunshine and highs in the mid-70s. Stronger south winds are likely to develop by midday as the pressure gradient strengthens with 15 to 28 mph winds. Showers will develop tonight west of I-35 around 10pm and advance eastward overnight, impacting part of northeastern OK through the overnight hours. These should be gone before most folks are up and ready for go Saturday morning. A weak surface front will cross the region Saturday morning with north winds for most of the day before the boundary stalls across southern OK and retreats northward Sunday morning. Unless this first system slows, the only impact will be some damp ground early Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon will be near 70 with mostly sunny conditions.
As the 2nd and stronger upper level wave approaches the central plains, pressure falls will cause the front to zip northward rapidly. This will bring warm and breezy weather across the state with south winds from 15 to 30 mph Sunday afternoon and highs nearing 80. We should have a few clouds in the morning but mostly sunny sky for the afternoon. By late Sunday afternoon, a cold front-dry line will near western OK and move eastward. Meager moisture profiles will keep the pops very low west of I-35 with a fire danger issue more concerning than storms across western OK due to the passage of the front. By Sunday evening, the front-dry line is nearing I-35 and the upper level winds are punching across the central plains. If low level moisture is deep enough in the atmosphere (and this is a big question), storms will develop and become severe. If moisture is limited, the better chances will remain slightly east of the metro. The wind shear profile would support supercell storms before becoming more favorable for linear formations. For this forecast package, I’ll keep a decent chance of storms for the metro eastward from 8pm Sunday through 4am Monday. Storms should exit far southeastern or eastern OK between 4am and 6am Monday leaving us with breezy northwest winds and highs in the 60s Monday afternoon with clearing sky.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be uneventful with cool to mild temps through period. A strong cold front is likely to arrive Thursday with a chance for showers along with a shot of colder air Thursday night into Friday morning. This will require the big coats once again for most folks Friday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great weekend.