Pleasant Thursday Before Cold Fronts Arrive

Our focus continues to be twofold tracking a pair of disturbances that will impact portions of the region into the weekend.   I also continue to think the timing will be favorable for getting most of the weekend activities underway with little impact on outdoor events.  The first disturbance arrives late Friday night and exits the area early Saturday morning.  The 2^nd (and stronger wave) arrives late Sunday night and departs early Monday morning.  Most of the daytime periods of the weekend will be rain and storm free according to the timing in most data.  This, of course, may change, but has been consistent for the last few days.  Most of next week appears rather uneventful from a sensible weather standpoint until we track another cold front with storm chances Thursday.

 A small ridge of high pressure has allowed for clear sky and light winds overnight.  This means we’re starting this morning with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s with some valleys slightly lower.  South winds will return today in the 10 to 20 mph range and this will do wonders for the daytime highs.  They’ll reach seasonal averages, in the lower to mid-70s, compared to yesterday’s chilly conditions.  Abundant sunshine will also lead to another very nice weather day.  The pressure gradient across the plains will tighten tonight through Friday with strong south winds developing from 15 to 30 mph Friday afternoon across eastern OK helping to transport low level moisture into southern Kansas by late Friday evening.  This will occur as the first of two distinct waves quickly move across the central plains.  A few showers and storms will be likely late Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday, mostly along and north of the highway 412 corridor region.  This starts around pre-dawn Saturday, right after Friday midnight.  If you have outdoor plans Saturday morning, the grounds may be damp from overnight showers, but most of the activity will be gone by 8am.  A surface cold front will move southward Saturday morning before stalling across the southern OK area Saturday evening, but no major cool-down will occur with Saturday highs in the lower 70s.

 Sunday pre-dawn the front zips northward as the next stronger upper level western U.S. trough nears the Rockies.  Strong south winds will quickly commence with 20 to 30 mph winds Sunday midday to afternoon along with a faster transport of moisture into the plains.  Temps will rise to near 80 by the afternoon with some sunshine helping to create convective potential energy and instability across eastern and southeastern OK that may support strong to severe storms by Sunday night late as the next cold front nears the area.  As I have stated here for many days, the pattern suggests severe weather threats for part of the area by this time period.  The actual data will continue to flip around regarding specifics, but I feel it’s prudent to keep this mention in the forecast.  As the front clears the area, thunderstorms will quickly end pre-dawn Monday with chilly weather returning Monday afternoon and pleasant conditions Tuesday into Wednesday before a strong front nears the state late next week.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone