Fog and some spotty drizzle will remain possible this morning along with mild temps before the cold front arrives later today bringing a chance for showers and storms along with windy and cooler weather.
We continue to track two distinct waves of energy today, with one stronger disturbance in the northern stream and a weak impulse in the southern stream. This southern stream impulse is already producing some scattered showers and storms along the Red River this morning.
As the northern stream system moves across the central plains today, the south winds continue to increase our low-level moisture across NE OK. This has resulted in clouds this morning along with a few spotty showers or pockets of drizzle with lows in the upper 60s. Highs this afternoon will be reached around or shortly after the noon-hour with locations near the metro reaching 73 with falling temps into the lower 60s by 5pm today.
As the weak front enters the metro region at midday to early afternoon, a narrow line of showers will be possible, but no severe weather will be likely across the metro. As the boundary approaches east-central and southeastern OK later this afternoon, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. I would think these areas will remain slightly southeast of our coverage areas.
The Arbuckles to the Pittsburg County region southeast would need to remain aware of this potential for a few strong to severe storms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. This threat will quickly end across southeastern by 7pm to 9pm tonight across southeastern OK, while continuing across northern Texas for a few more hours this evening.
The southern stream disturbance may still bring a few showers into north Texas Wednesday while northern and most of eastern OK benefits from a surface ridge of high pressure, sunny sky and cool weather. Lows Wednesday morning will start in the upper 30s to lower 40s with afternoon highs in the lower 60s along with sunshine and pleasant conditions. The return flow from the south quickly engages Thursday with windy weather Friday into part of the weekend as the next upper level system develops across the western U.S. and brings another chance for a few storms across eastern OK.
The pattern would suggest a chance for a few showers or storms late Friday night into Saturday morning as low-level moisture surges northeast. This will also act to bring the temps up a notch or two, with morning lows in the 60s Saturday followed by highs in the upper 70s, near 80, and south winds changing to the north Saturday for a few hours behind a weak cold front. The winds will quickly return from the south Saturday evening into Sunday morning as our next upper level system nears the state. Wind speeds will increase quickly from 20 to 30 mph by Sunday afternoon. Sunday could feature a few showers or storms based on the pattern, but the actual model data suggests things would remain quiet until late Sunday night or Monday morning when a strong cold front will move across the area. We’ll not get too fancy with specific timing this far out, but the Sunday period would be favored for a few strong to near severe storms. Behind the Sunday night front, another few days of cool and pleasant fall weather is expected Monday through Wednesday of early next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!