Cool Tuesday Morning; Storm Chances Return Later This Week

Another chilly morning is underway with temps in the 40s and 50s.  More sunshine is expected today with highs like yesterday.  We’ll be in the mid-70s with north winds early and south winds later tonight.  Our next system continues to be on track for the end of the week with severe weather threats Thursday before chilly conditions arrive Friday.

The elongated trough located from northern Canada to the northern regions of the Pacific Northwest will move across the far Northwestern U.S. tonight and move into the intermountain region Wednesday morning.  By Thursday afternoon, this bowling ball of energy will be located over Wyoming and Colorado before ejecting into the plains Friday night and curving northeast into the upper Midwest Saturday.  Near and north of this feature, winter weather will follow, including the potential for more significant snowfall from the Rockies and especially into the northern plains and upper Midwest Friday into Saturday.  The main impact for our weather will occur Thursday evening into early Friday as a surface cold front will move across the state with thunderstorms and pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.  Some severe weather threats seem possible due to the shear and returning moisture across eastern OK.  EURO severe parameters would suggest a narrow window where all modes of severe weather could be possible.  The timing of this system has been rather consistent with run to run of certain models but may still need some tweaking before we lock into a confident estimated time of arrival and departure.  At this hour, it still appears to be Thursday afternoon into evening will feature the severe weather window with some lingering showers likely into early Friday morning.  Before this main window develops, a few spotty showers or rumbles of thunder will be possible Wednesday as moisture attempt to return ahead of the main system.  This chance will be confined to areas near and northwest of the metro.  A few spotty showers will also be possible Thursday morning before the main cold front arrives Thursday evening.  Another noticeable impact in our sensible weather will be increasing wind speeds from the south Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to deepening pressures to our northwest. 

The airmass behind this departing front appears to be very dry and seasonably cold.  We’ll more than likely reach high temperatures Friday during the morning hours before slowly dropping into the upper 40 or lower 50s for the afternoon along with gusty northwest winds.  By evening, the clouds will depart, and the temps will drop.  We’ll be in the upper 30s near the metro Saturday morning with outlying areas in the mid-30s.  Saturday afternoon highs are expected to stay in the lower to mid-60s with abundant sunshine and north winds.  Sunday also appears mostly pleasant with sunshine until late along with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s.  Another weak system may brush the area Monday or Tuesday, but data this morning suggest minimal impacts, other than pleasant weather for early next week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone