One more warm and humid afternoon will be ahead of us before some cooler, fall like air arrives Thursday and into the weekend. We’re also tracking a chance for a few showers and storms later tonight, a few of which could be severe across far northern OK and southern Kansas. The severe threats for the Tulsa metro will remain very low, if not zero. We’re also tracking at least two pushes southward of another front for the weekend that will also bring a chance for a scattered showers and storms followed by some additional fall like air across the state. Temperatures this morning remain well above the seasonal 30-year seasonal averages, almost 25 degrees above average, into the mid-70s. The afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s along with heat index values into the mid-90s along with slightly breezy south winds at 10 to 22 mph. The front will pass the Tulsa metro early tomorrow morning bringing north winds and a reduction in temperature and humidity.
The threat for any severe storms should be greatly limited in time and space, and mostly confined to southeastern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms may slip into far northern OK, in the Osage to Washington county region, but the data suggest the surface front will undercut the precip quickly later tonight. This tends to disrupt updraft formation and the overall severe weather potential. This may also limit the overall coverage. We have opted to use a slightly lower probability of precipitation, but some spotty showers should occur early Thursday morning across northern OK. This will more than likely not extend past the Tulsa metro. The chance for the metro remains near 30 to 40%.
The front will move southward and begin to slowdown or even stall across far southeastern OK by midday to afternoon creating another broad range of temperatures Thursday afternoon. The cooler readings, into the upper 60s and lower 70s will be along the state line into southern Kansas. Locations around the I-44 region, including the Tulsa metro should top out in the 72 range, while locations south of I-40 will reach the upper 70s or the lower 80s
This boundary will lift northward Friday morning to midday with a very slight chance of a shower as this process occurs. Morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s will move into the mid to upper 70s with east to southeast winds by afternoon around 10 mph. At this point, Friday night football continues to look pleasant and dry.
This weekend continues to offer different scenarios regarding the best chances for showers and storms. I’ll not explore all the different options at this point but try to simplify for this early morning update.
The front will be north of the state line Saturday morning but should return southward by midday to early evening. As this occurs, a few storms will be possible. There may be enough instability for a strong to severe storm as daytime highs are expected to reach the lower 80s across NE OK and the upper 80s across southeastern sections of the state.
This front should move southward Saturday evening, but may stall around the I-40 areas before getting another push southward Sunday. We may have two separate windows for showers and storms Sunday, with the metro having a chance Sunday morning, and southern OK Sunday afternoon and evening. Temps look good with lows in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 70s.
The front will finally clear all southern OK Monday morning with pleasant fall weather for the early part of next week. Monday morning starts in the mid-50s with highs in the upper 60s. Tuesday morning could support a few upper 40s in the valleys and lower 50s elsewhere with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog,
Have a super great day!