The front that passed through the area Monday morning is now lifting northward across part of the state this morning and is helping to generate scattered showers and storms across part of eastern OK. These should remain below severe levels, but abundant low-level moisture will aide in moderate to heavy rainfall production in a few spots. Some small dime-sized hail will be possible along with cloud to ground lightning in some locations. A flash flood watch will remain for the metro to the east and southeast through 4 p.m. today. Temperatures will remain in the 70s this morning and should reach the lower 80s this afternoon along with south winds returning at 10 to 15 mph.
The front should continue lifting northward, or possibly become diffuse and reform later this afternoon to our north across part of Kansas. The upper flow will produce a broad trough lifting across the western U.S. with the northern portion moving across southern Canada into the northern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. A closed low will develop at the base of the western trough later tonight and should be positioned across the desert southwest or the Mexican plateau through Thursday before ejecting into the flow Friday.
As the main forcing Wednesday will remain north, we’ll keep a chance for a few showers and storms tomorrow morning to midday, and then a slight chance for a few storms Wednesday afternoon. This chance will remain mostly low. As the surface front attempts to move southward again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, a higher chance for showers and storms will remain possible across the northern third of the state, approximately along and north of the highway 412 corridor, maybe as far south as the I-40 region. While most of the stronger upper level dynamics will be removed from our area, a few strong to severe storms can’t be ruled out Wednesday evening late with the boundary to our north as a focus and the slightly stronger flow aloft brushing the southern and central plains.
As the cutoff low attempts to migrate back into the flow, the boundary may once again lift northward into Kansas Thursday afternoon or evening before making another run at the state Friday night into Saturday morning with yet additional rain and storm chances. The overall coverage appears relatively low for this late period, but we’ll keep at least a 20% chance of storms during the day Friday, and a 30% chance Friday night into early Saturday morning. Then Friday night into Saturday, the pattern remains unsettled. And the data is also inconsistent. A front may enter northern OK along with additional showers and storms Saturday.
The medium to longer range data supports a strong upper level storm system power housing across the nation during the 1st week of October. This would drive a strong fall front across the state around Wednesday or Thursday, Oct 4th or 5th. Of course, we’ve seen these solutions for the past month. Eventually, a strong front of this magnitude will arrive, and the first week in October fits from a cllimo perspective. At this point, not a solid pillar for a forecast for early October, but at least something of a hint regarding true fall-like weather.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!